What is Hezbollah Up To? Will Hamas' Hope for a "Unity of the Battlefields" be fulfilled?
October 22, 2023 - Issue #22
Things are grim in the north. Hamas hope for Hezbollah to attack from the north, an uprising in the West Bank, missiles from the Houthis, incursions from Syria, and even a direct attack from Iran. this is the “Unity of Battlefields” that Hamas sees as its salvation and what it hoped that October 7 would be a catalyst for. Of all of those possibilities, an attack by Hezbollah is the most likely, and in many ways the most concerning.
So today I return to Hezbollah and northern Israel where that battlefront is poised to explode—and my personal relationship to the people that live there.
Dating back to 2015, twice a year other than during COVID, I drove, walked, and studied all of Israel’s borders with Lebanon and Syria. At no time did I have concern for my personal safety despite frequently seeing Hezbollah’s operatives gawking at me from a distance and being within killing range of their installations designed to intimidate. All was peaceful though tense. Now, Hezbollah is shooting, firing anti-tank missiles, and launching rockets everywhere I once tread. Its operatives are also busy trying to destroy the IDF’s border surveillance equipment so as to make it easier for them to cross the border undetected. The IDF announced that since the start of the war in the northern arena, “there have been 2 infiltration attempts, 200+ rockets & mortar launches, and 30+ ATGM attacks.” In addition, the last 24 hours saw two Hezbollah drones trying to infiltrate into Israel. IDF soldiers have been killed and wounded.
In past times, Israel would not have tolerated this and Hezbollah would not have dared to do so. But times have changed.
For now, Israel has confined its responses to hitting back at the location from which the firing comes, killing Hezbollah’s terrorists in the process of preparing to or actually attacking targets in Israel, and/or destroying some minor Hezbollah military installation—all in a manner designed not to escalate the fighting.
Up to now.
Clearly, Israel is trying to avoid a major fight on another front before it dismantles Hamas. That makes sense. And I see no other choice for now other than that, other than to launch a preemptive war against Hezbollah (more on that a little later in this article), which if news reports are to be believed, the United States has weighed in against. However, should Hezbollah’s infiltrators get through, or one of their shells kill many in one blow, Israel might well respond far more violently than it has to date. Israel will have no choice but to do that in order to maintain any remaining deterrence and credibility for forestalling far worse. But that also could lead to a full fledged war where casualties will be in the thousands or more and infrastructure loss in the billions.
But, even absent a new significant traumatic event, for how long can Israel accept the status quo? A status quo that has paralyzed northern Israel. A status quo that may well be part of Hezbollah and Iran’s plan to reap long term benefits at little cost. In other words—a win for Hezbollah and Iran.
Why do I say this?
Very appropriately, Israel has ordered all Israeli citizens from the twenty-eight communities within two kilometers of the border to evacuate. Evacuation orders have also been issued for other communities within five kilometers. Kiryat Shmona, a city of 22,000, has also received evacuation orders. All in all, 60,000 Israelis have now been ordered to relocate. All roads close to the border are closed. Economic activity in the region is on hold. The wheels of industry in the area are stilled. All but the most urgent agricultural pursuits, including watering and fertilization impaired (although I did receive onsite information that some farmers in Metula are still performing emergency tasks albeit at significant personal risk). Children are not going to school. Life there has ground to a halt. In short, the border regions of northern Israel are now an economic wasteland peppered with frequent bursts of fire, constant movement of IDF forces, and a pervasive level of fear and concern that extends many miles further back.
Thus, by making the border region a civilian no-go zone, Hezbollah has already achieved a victory. Not by taking land, but by denying its use.
This is personal for me. I have many friends living near Israel’s border with Lebanon and Syria. I know the area’s hills, its rivers, its roads, and fields. I haven’t just read about its history, I have felt it as I have seen the same sights the ancients saw, as I strode through battlefields where I can still feel the courage and tenacity of the Jews that fought there, and as I spoke to those that now live there, fought for the land, and now live their lives in peace. I have been in its schools, its homes, its memorials, and its shrines. In short, the land speaks to me and everyday nudges me to return.
Also calling to me are its tragedies. One of which is a young IDF reservist who died October 21.
Omer Balva was killed by anti-tank missile fired by Hezbollah. He was twenty-two. Omer, a dual Israeli-American citizen, grew up in Rockville, Maryland where he attended Charles E. Smith Jewish day school. After graduating from its high school, Omer returned to Israel where he served in the IDF after which he returned to the United States to visit. Hearing that the IDF called up his reserve unit to active duty after October 7, Omer promptly returned to Israel to protect his country. Days later a Hezbollah anti-tank missile killed him. Omer is the son of a friend of a friend of mine. His death touches me even though I never knew or met him. But in Israel, no death is far removed from anyone. Every death is just a family member or a friend away. It is true for soldier deaths. It is true for those who suffered torture, kidnap, and death at the hands of Hamas. It is now true for me. Not just for Omer but for all my friends experiencing the trauma of these days and for all the people of Israel.
In short, the tragedy of what Israel is now experiencing is intimate for me.
But I fully understand if it is not intimate for you. Without personal involvement, even nightmares like October 7 fade. Names of a changing tableau of strange places numb us and statistics and tallies of death and privation scroll by as we go about our daily lives. The horror of the nightmare we woke up to October 7 fades. Many readers of this newsletter have never been to today’s frontlines or know people living there. We care, but no longer viscerally fear the deep trauma all Israelis now feel every moment—the fear, the anger, the despair—and the deep determination and courage to do something about it so it never happens again.
I get it.
So I will provide you some knowledge anchors about the north that will help your understanding should continue. I will do so by briefly describing five locations and their meaning the me that, along with many other communities, are at the epicenter of Hezbollah’s attacks: Kibbutz Hanita, Kibbutz Misgav Am, Kiryat Shmona, Metula, and Kibbutz Dan.
1) Kibbutz Hanita – Along the western border of Israel and Lebanon, a ridgeline divides the two countries. There, on a strategic hilltop, a few miles from the Mediterranean, Kibbutz Hanita abuts the Lebanese border. Hanita is one of Israel’s most famous kibbutzim. Over the course of one day in 1938, hundreds of intrepid souls shlepped building materials up the hill and built a tower and stockade. By nightfall, all but 100 left. At midnight, Arabs attacked, killing two. But the kibbutz held. Since then, it has played an important role shoring up Israel’s border.
I fell in love with the kibbutz and many of its people years ago. So much so, that my wife and I financially helped to put in a playground there. So much so that the kibbutz was a focal point of my book Living in Heaven, Coping with Hell. So much so that I have slept several nights in a yurt there. So much so, that every time I travel to Israel I walk its perimeter, buy gin from its distillery, sip coffee at its outdoor café. Simply put, as I drive the steep, twisting road that leads to it, I always feel that aha emotion that makes me feel like I am home.
Several days ago, the IDF killed four terrorists seeking to place explosives against the fence at Hanita separating the kibbutz from Lebanon. Also an anti-tank missile flew towards the tiny IDF base placed to protect the kibbutz. Here, there are ample opportunities for terrorists to cross into the settlement despite the IDF having bulldozed down a hillside to make a sheer wall a couple of years ago to make infiltration more difficult.
2) Kibbtuz Misgav Am – This kibbutz is on the tiptop of a hill overlooking Metula and adjacent to a Lebanese town a bit north and lower down. Like Hanita, it holds a strategic hillside. In this storied kibbutz, in 1980, Palestinian terrorists broke into a children’s residence with the intent to kidnap or kill. Three Israelis died. Only resolute action by the IDF saved the day. Now sits, at the edge of the kibbutz, a structure called Fortress of the People. Utilizing its all glass walls, guides give visitors a bird’s eye view of the frailty of Israel’s hold on the region. Outside the building, old pillboxes and gun emplacements dot the perimeter road, on the other side of which sits the border fence. One day, I visited the kibbutz in a dense fog. When I tried to park along the perimeter road I accidently rolled off a steep drop. It felt like I was rolling into Lebanon.
3) Kibbutz Dan – A little further east, along a flat plain, Kibbutz Dan sits at the confluence of where the border of Syria once joined with Israel and Lebanon. The kibbutz is named after the ancient Jewish tribe of Dan, one of the twelve tribes of Israel from thousands of years ago. Just to the east of it are the ruins of the capitol of the tribe of Dan. To the west is another kibbutz whose fields I worked on as a teenager. And, at Kibbutz Dan’s southern border, are the remains of entrenchments and a customs house in a field. It is a field in which thirteen men held off hundreds of Syrian attackers in 1967. One of those men took me through it and told me the story. I return, and walk those fields every time I return to Israel. It is hallowed ground.
4) Kiryat Shmona - This city of 22,000 lies on the other side of the hills separating Israel from Lebanon in the far north of Israel. It was an immigrant town and still struggles for economic viability. For decades it has been a favorite target for terrorist rockets—first the PLO and now Hezbollah. Many have been killed or wounded there by those rockets, others have suffered from terrorist incursions. Yet the people there have persevered. Years ago I met the daughter of a former Mayor of the town. She now is a tireless advocate at the Knesset and elsewhere for the people living there. Through her I came to appreciate Kiryat Shmona’s history and people. Now, it is empty.
5) Metula – In the finger of Israel, Metula is the northernmost Israeli town. Surrounded on three sides by Lebanon, the narrow road leading to it can easily be pinched off by an attacking army. Recognizing its fragility, Hezbollah built two tunnels, discovered in 2019, that stretched from Lebanon into Israel. One was to emit Hezbollah henchmen and vehicles to cut the road to Metula. The other to deliver murders and kidnappers into Metula just like Hamas did on October 7 outside of Gaza. I return to Metula most times I travel to Israel. Frankly, amidst the calm, it always felt a bit tense there. Nowhere else do Lebanon’s roads and towns feel so close. The danger so near. Nowhere else have I seen so many Hezbollah operatives, and likely have they seen me. But yet it calls me to return and I follow that call. Partly, because of Metula’s beauty. Partly because when I stay overnight, or buy a meal, I am supporting Metula’s economy. But also because going there is a statement—Metula is part of Israel and it always will be.
Why am I telling you about these five villages? Because now they are desolate. Its residents have been driven from their homes out of legitimate fear of being hit by Hezbollah’s munitions.
My question is—when will they be able to come home? To do so, Hezbollah has to stop firing at them. Will it?
I think not. At least not soon.
For now, Hezbollah is sitting in the catbird’s seat. With Israel rightly focused on Gaza, Hezbollah believes the IDF will not react strongly to Hezbollah’s provocations. But if the IDF does not respond violently, the provocations will not end, they will only increase. This is the pattern we have seen over the last year. Now, as Sarit Zehavi’s Alma Research and Education Center reports, Hezbollah is pushing the envelope even more.
Soon, the northern front may prove to be the most consequential. It is from there that Israel faces a much larger threat to its existence.
I predict things will get worse not better. If so, there are at least five possible scenarios:
1) Israel will react strongly to Hezbollah’s murderous activity, Hezbollah will counter, and events will spiral into a full-fledged war with Hezbollah;
2) Israel will respond locally but do little else. In which case, Hezbollah will do more and more and the residents of the border communities will not return to their homes.
3) Israel will accept the loss of use of that two to five kilometer border region and that land will become barren. And worse, the vast negative impact on Israel’s vitality and psychology would cause incalculable consequences that could endanger the state.
4) Should the situation in Gaza resolve, Hezbollah will stop doing what it is doing. That is highly unlikely because Hezbollah has been building to this moment with increasing ardor for more than a year before October 7.
5) Israel will pre-empt. Either now, or after eviscerating Hamas.
Scenarios 1-3 are not good for Israel, at least in the short term. Scenario 4 is unlikely. Scenario 5, a pre-emptive attack, makes the most sense. Israel would have the greatest chance of success if it controls the facts on the ground by striking at a moment not of Hezbollah’s choosing. But that would require Israel to weigh carefully the geopolitical risks—especially since the United States purportedly opposed that option.
So, I ask, was this Iran’s plan all along? Use Hamas to shake up the region. Use Hezbollah to destabilize part of Israel without engaging in an outright war. Meanwhile, race to develop its nuclear capability while Israel is otherwise engaged.
And, one Israeli friend alerted me to another issue. Even if there is no war in the north, if events in Gaza end without Hamas’s complete destruction and/or in the north Hezbollah remains strong and defiant—who will want to return to live near the borders in the north again. After seeing how porous the Gaza border is, who will trust that a much more powerful Hezbollah will not do the same a year or two for now. Thus, the region would become depopulated—the cheap win for Hezbollah and Iran that I spoke about above.
I see only one way out of all this. A slow grinding war to eviscerate Hamas and a quick violent one to defang Hezbollah and possibly reoccupy a small border region in Lebanon. I fully realize my suggested course is full of danger and foreseeable and unforeseeable risks. It would cause significant IDF and noncombatant casualties. It would risk condemnation by the world community. But the alternatives are far worse. Kicking the can down the road by half measures is a recipe for the destruction of the state of Israel.
I hope I am wrong. I fear I am not.
Daily update: Israel at war Day 17 Oct 23, 2023, 18:00 PM Israel time - Written by Alma Research and Education Center—A comprehensive review of events.
Hamas Torture Confirmed as Israeli Forensic Institute Identifies Victims—Written by AARON PORIS/THE MEDIA LINE Aaron Portis/The Media Line for the Jerusalem Pos—October 22, 2023 - Hard to read, hard to imagine, hardens my attitude as to what Israel must do.
Israel’s Struggle with Hezbollah—A War Without End is now available in eBook and hardback format on Amazon and IngramSpark. This compelling narrative explores Hezbollah’s origins and cancerous growth, traces Israel’s response, and reveals Israel’s present readiness to meet Hezbollah’s challenge.
Cliff Sobin
Important Link—Alma Research and Education Center: Understanding the Security Challenges on Israel’s Northern Border