The Strategic Threats Israel Faces - And a Path Forward - Part One
February 7, 2023 - Issue #42
Israel faces multiple, intertwined strategic threats, many of which stem from sources beyond Israel’s reach or present ability to significantly influence. Meeting those challenges requires attention to the big picture while simultaneously navigating a narrow path filled with pitfalls. Unfortunately, far too many pundits, decision makers, and others focus more on shortsighted tactics of the moment rather than the best strategy for Israel to embrace to overcome the significant forces seeking its destruction.
This general problem of not considering the full picture must be a subject of the information war we fight because Israel will soon have to decide:
Whether to accept a long pause in Gaza in return for the release of some, or all, of the hostages.
Whether to launch a pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah to push its forces away from the border or accept a diplomatic deal of doubtful benefit because it will neither be enforced or viable.
How to respond to pressure from the United States to move rapidly towards a two-state solution for Palestinians that would include the West Bank and at some point, Gaza.
Therefore, I think it worthwhile to identify many of the strategic challenges Israel faces today.
Iran – Located a little more than 1,000 miles from Israel at its closest point, Iran constitutes one of Israel’s gravest threats. It possesses 3,000 or more long-range ballistic missiles, is on the verge of adding nuclear weapons to its arsenal if has not done so already, and despite varying levels of sanctions over many years, has sufficient financial resources to support and arm proxies throughout the Middle East. Now, Iran is a significant supplier of arms to Russia and has deep economic ties with China. To say it is a huge threat to Israel is a vast understatement.
The United States has the capability to set back Iran’s nuclear program significantly but does not have the will. Israel has the will but today lacks the capability to do more than perhaps delay the inevitable. Until now, Israel has relied on multiple clandestine means to prevent an Iranian nuclear breakout. But the utility of those operations is likely coming to an end, leaving Israel with only one option if it must act alone to further delay the Iranian nuclear breakout—a multi-day aerial campaign that would require using much of Israel’s air power, leaving a weakened force to counter other threats on Israel’s borders. As such, the threat from Iran is existential, all-consuming, and difficult but necessary to counter since just one nuclear weapon well-placed, could kill hundreds of thousands of Israelis.Terror Emanating from Gaza – Israel’s border with Gaza is about thirty-seven miles long. If Hamas maintains any semblance of organization within Gaza after the war ends, and if its leadership remains intact, it is only a matter of time before Hamas will reconstitute into an even more powerful form of what it was on October 7. Hamas is also an Iranian proxy, influenced to some degree, but not entirely, by dictates from Tehran. Furthermore, Israelis will not willingly resettle in communities adjacent to the border until they are assured that they will never again face a threat from terror emanating from Gaza. Something that Hamas’ leadership has made clear they intend to do again and again. Thus, the threat to Israel from a reconstituted Hamas is very high—not just because of its armament and manpower but also because of the emboldening psychological impact Hamas’ survival would have on Gazan residents and terrorists in the West Bank and worldwide.
Hezbollah – Hezbollah is the controlling entity in Lebanon despite the existence of a tottering Lebanese government. Hezbollah is also aligned very closely with its main benefactor, Iran. Most think that if Iran says jump, Hezbollah’s response will be how high?
Israel’s border with Lebanon is about fifty miles long with villages abutting both sides of the boundary, mountainous terrain, and much vegetation. Hezbollah, like Hamas, advocates for Israel’s destruction, but unlike Hamas, has the means to kill many thousands of Israelis, devastate large swaths of Israel, and wreak havoc on its economy. Today, it has more than 150,000 missiles, many of which would land within yards of their targets and that can fly to any point in Israel with huge explosive payloads (compared to Hamas having had on October 7 about twenty thousand mostly short-range, inaccurate, and smaller rockets). Hezbollah also counts among its many fighters an extremely well-trained, many thousands strong Radwan force that is well-prepared to conquer Israeli communities. And, every day, Hezbollah is getting stronger. Realizing this, few of the eighty thousand Israelis civilians that evacuated the border region with Lebanon are willing to return until Hezbollah’s threat is neutered. As such, the threat to Israel is extreme.The West Bank – Israel shares a 205-mile border with the West Bank which in one place squeezes the width of Israel down to nine miles between Palestinian population centers and the Mediterranean Sea, and in many other areas leaves Israel only twenty miles wide. In that nine-to-twenty-mile-wide area, live many Israelis and sits much of Israel’s economic strength. And then there is the matter of Jerusalem, located at a triangular point surrounded on two sides by the West Bank. Thus, Israel would be at significant risk should a terrorist organization gain control of the West Bank.
For two decades after Israel’s inception in 1948, terrorists found the West Bank fertile ground for establishing bases from which they would launch raids into Israel. Now, the Palestinian Authority has ceded much control of portions of the West Bank to Hamas and other terror entities. Only aggressive Israeli military operations have prevented terrorists from taking full control and launching coordinated mass terror attacks into Israel. Recently, the IDF found terrorist tunnels in one West Bank city and some Israelis are concerned that other terror tunnels now snake into Israel from the West Bank. Also, the IDF has confiscated much terrorist weaponry and some rudimentary rockets in the region. As such, the threat today to Israel is moderate but requires significant resources to tamp down. However, if a Hamas-like terror organization took control of the West Bank, the threat would be huge.Syria’s Border with Israel – Stretching along the eastern side of the Golan Heights, the border between Israel and Syria is about fifty miles long. On the Syrian side, Iran and Hezbollah are working hard to create another front that Israel must contend with by placing ground forces and rockets near the Syrian border with Israel. Therefore, periodically, missiles launched from within Syria, head towards Israel to which Israel usually responds by trying to kill those have launched the attack. Israel also usually then strikes Syrian army emplacements in the region because Israel holds Syria responsible for any attacks emanating from Syrian soil. As such, the threat is moderate but growing.
Houthis – Located in Yemen, the Houthis are an Iranian supported Shiite terror movement that possesses numerous drones and missiles, including long-range ones. So far, since October 7, the Houthis have launched several missiles towards Eilat, a little more than 1,000 miles away. All of them have been interdicted by Israel, the U.S., or even Saudi Arabia before reaching Israel. But because of the distance, the Houthis kinetic threat to Israel is minimal for now, although the Houthi missile threat likely does tie down some IDF missile defense resources and also, shooting down Houthi missiles appears to sometimes require employing Israel’s expensive Arrow interceptors rather than Iron Dome.
However, the Houthi economic threat to the Jewish State is significant. In 1967, part of the reason Israel went to war was because Egypt blocked Israel’s shipping route from Eilat. The Houthis are attempting to do the same by attacking any ships in the Red Sea that are involved in commerce with Israel, regardless of nationality, in and near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait—a route ships must take to go to and from Eilat. For now, it appears that some members of the international community, primarily the U.S. and Great Britain, are dealing with that issue. However, there is no guarantee that will continue. As such, the threat for now is moderate but needs watching.Kata’ib Hezbollah – This Shiite terrorist group located about 540 miles from Israel is directly subordinate to Iran. It, like the Houthis, possesses significant numbers of drones and missiles. It also has thousands of terrorist operatives, some of which are in Syria along its border with the Israeli held Golan Heights. And, through territory controlled by it, many armaments flow from Tehran to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Over the last few days, Kata’ib Hezbollah has been a focus of the U.S. who holds it at least partially accountable for the death of three American soldiers and the wounding of many others. As such, the threat to Israel is moderate, for now.
Egypt – Egypt shares a 128-mile border with Israel and a 7.5-mile border with Gaza that is adjacent to Rafah, Hamas’ last stronghold. Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty in 1979 that included restrictions on forces along their respective borders and in Egyptian-held Sinai. Both parties agreed to modify that agreement to permit Egypt to employ additional forces in the region to better control ongoing terrorism in the Sinai and the flow of arms to Hamas when Israel left Gaza in 2005.
While Egypt somewhat successfully ameliorated the terrorist threat in the Sinai, it either failed to stop, or ignored. all too many weapons shipments to Hamas through an above-ground crossing and underground, through tunnels. Now, Israel is faced with going after Hamas in Rafah, where over one million Gazan refugees sheltering in tents provide Hamas with their last remaining defense—human shields. Israel has attempted to reach a solution with Egypt that would make it easier for the IDF to enter Rafah to eliminate Hamas’ operatives and leadership there (and potentially rescue hostages) while preserving Gazan civilian lives. Fearing that Gazans would enter Egypt’s Sinai in mass, and/or the domestic political issues that might arise should the Egyptian leadership aid Israel in any way, Egypt has refused to reach an accommodation. Furthermore, Egypt has threatened to suspend its peace treaty with Israel should Israel press forward into Rafah. Given that Egypt is the most powerful country in the Arab world, a confrontation with Egypt would tie down significant Israeli forces, preventing them from dealing with other threats in the region. Thus, the threat is provisional but potentially significant.The United States – Although America is Israel’s closest and necessary friend by many orders of magnitude, it also presents in some ways a huge strategic threat for multiple reasons if angered—Israel’s need for ongoing resupply of weapons, Israel’s need for America’s veto protection at the United Nations, a push from America on Israel to agree to a long term or permanent ceasefire, and relentless pressure on Israel to agree to a two-state solution. I will briefly discuss each issue:
a. Israel’s ability to fight the battles ahead of it, including a potential clash with Hezbollah, requires confidence that its logistical concerns will be met. The United States possesses the ability to dictate courses of action that Israel might think antithetical to interest by slowing the flow of critical munitions such as precision guided missiles and artillery shells.
b. Israel’s need for veto protection from U.N. Security Council Resolutions is self-evident. Without it, Israel could become a pariah state, forced to choose between crippling sanctions and its security needs.
c. The United States is now overly focused on Israel minimizing civilian Gazan casualties, perhaps because of American domestic politics in an election year.
d. A thorough discussion of issues surrounding a two-state solution requires much more than I have the space to do here. Suffice it to say, however, that for a two-state solution to succeed it requires the Palestinians wanting, and having the capability to sustain, a solution that leaves Israel secure—something that there is no indication they can do given its domestic politics and no real evidence that its leadership wants to do. For a much more in-depth discussion of the problems that must be surmounted, I suggest you read Elliott Abrams’ article that I have linked to below in the suggested article section of this newsletter.
Anti-Semitism and Israel Hatred Worldwide – Some of this is based on long-standing deeply held convictions concerning Jews. Some stem from a global change in political discourse, especially among the young, that now defaults to favoring the perceived underdog. Some, is from a masterful information war campaign waged by Palestinians and assisted by often poor messaging by Israel. And some opposition is fed by lack of knowledge. As such, this is a very significant long term threat.
While the list above is not fully comprehensive, I think you get the idea. Choosing the proper path is complicated. And it takes recognition that there are at least three crucial forces that drive events—Iran, America, and generational changes impacting support for Israel.
So, is there an answer to Israel’s strategic dilemma?
I think so. But because of the length of this article, I will suggest a way forward in Part Two in my next newsletter coming soon.
I am also honored to inform all of you that Jewish News Syndicate published another of my opinion pieces. A link to this is HERE.
The Northern Arena and the Shiite Axis: Weekly Update (January 28 to February 4, 2024)—By Tal Beeri for the Alma Research and Education Center—February 5, 2024
The Two-State Delusion—Written by Elliott Abrams for Tablet—February 1, 2024—Whether you support a two-state solution or not, this article is an essential read for understanding the difficulty with implementing such a solution.
'These are super-Nazis, but we are not like them'—Written by Eyal Levi for Israel Hayom—February 5, 2024—This is the story of an embedded reporter with a commando brigade in Khan Younis. I found it an enlightening read.
Israel's War on Hamas is the Least Deadly War in the Region—Written by Daniel Greenfield for the Gatestone Institute—February 4, 2024—This is an important read for those concerned about the number of Gazan civilian casualties and how that compares to other ward. The article also points out, “The morality of a war is not measured in civilian casualties, but in deliberate civilian killings.”
Netanyahu Lays Out Conditions for Ending War Against Hamas— Written by Akiva Van Koningsveld for Jewish News Syndicate—February 4, 2024
Iran’s Growing Role in Judea and Samaria—Written by Irina Tsukerman for the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs—February 5, 2024—A truly harrowing discussion of Iran’s efforts to create yet another front.
How Can Israel Complete Its Victory in the Swords of Iron War?—Written by Col. (res.) Shay Shabtai for the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies—January 25, 2024
Israeli forces simulating warfare with Hezbollah in Israel's North, January 27, 2024 (photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT)
How Israel Can defeat Hezbollah, Solve its Problem to the North - Analysis—Written by Yonah Jeremy Bob for the Jerusalem Post—January 29, 2024—This article provides a different perspective on solving the problem with Hezbollah that is short of all-out war but long of diplomacy. I don’t think it is feasible but I offer it as an alternative ostensibly being considered by the government.
Israel’s Struggle with Hezbollah—A War Without End is now available in eBook and hardback format on Amazon and IngramSpark. This compelling narrative explores Hezbollah’s origins and cancerous growth, traces Israel’s response, and reveals Israel’s present readiness to meet Hezbollah’s challenge.
Cliff Sobin
Important Link—Alma Research and Education Center: Understanding the Security Challenges on Israel’s Northern Border
Kudos on the JNS publication!! Also, thanks for spelling out the details of all this complicated mess!