The Present State of the War in Gaza
March 23, 2024 - Issue #46
Ten Days ago, I wrote that there can be no compromise with evil. I had hoped to write today about Israel’s continuing confrontation with Hezbollah. But three things forced me to change my plans. The first two involve America: its increasingly strident pressure on Israel to forego or weaken its planned move into Rafah plus the American United Nations Security Council Resolution that was vetoed by Russia and China, apparently at least in part, because they thought it did not contain strong enough language regarding a permanent ceasefire.
The third thing was the impact on me of two podcasts that featured Ron Dermer.
Ron Dermer is presently the Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs. He was born in the United States, graduated from the University of Pennsylvania and later earned an additional degree from Oxford in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics. While at Oxford, he became a chief political advisor for Natan Sharansky, a human rights activist and one-time Soviet political prisoner released by the Russians due to international pressure. Dermer co-wrote with Sharansky the book The Case for Democracy: The Power of Freedom to Overcome Tyranny & Terror. Sharansky also introduced Dermer to Bibi Netanyahu who subsequently appointed Dermer as Israel’s Ambassador to the United States in 2013—a position he held until 2021. Now, as Minister of Strategic Affairs, he not only has prime responsibility for managing Israel’s relationship with the United States and Saudi Arabia, but he also sits as an observer in Israel’s War Cabinet. Not bad for a guy that only made Aliyah in 1996. And even more accomplished than his brother who served three terms as Miami’s Mayor and his father who was elected twice as Mayor of Miami.
My respect for Dermer was sparked by the several times I heard him speak at AIPAC events and in interviews on television. Then, I had the fortune to interview Dermer in May 2023 for my forthcoming book about Israel’s Information War. He couldn’t have been nicer or more engaging. But before I get more into that, I think you might be interested in the conversation we had about his football career. It turns out that in his younger days, Dermer could throw a football 60 yards in a tight spiral. That prompted him to play in an Israeli flag football league that eventually played internationally where his team beat France to win the international world cup. His exploits even led him to being named to Israel’s flag football Hall of Fame!
Dermer allowed me to interview him for more than an hour. I found him cogent, honest, self-deprecating and non-political (he has never run for office in Israel). I also found him reasoned, thoughtful, imaginative, and forceful. Frankly, just the sort of person that I admire greatly and from whom much can be learned. He is a true leader and an eloquent visionary who was very responsible for the Abraham Accords. That is why, after listening this week to two podcasts where Dermer was the interviewee, one from Donnie Deutch and the other from Dan Senor, I felt it important to share with you what I heard, learned, and then verified from other sources.
And, given that Dermer will arrive in the United States on Monday for consultations, now is the time for us to collectively understand what has been achieved and what is at stake.
But first this, October 7, Dermer explained, was the first pogrom that Israel has ever experienced. It shattered two fundamental promises that go to the essence of the creation of Israel:
That Jews in Israel can defend themselves; and
That Jews can find safety by returning to their ancestral homeland. This, I think, is crucial for both those Jews presently needing to escape danger as well as those who feel safe for the moment. For those in danger they can escape. For those feeling safe, they can fight back against threats without fear that there is no alternative should their efforts fail.
To reinstate those promises to the Israeli people and Jews in the diaspora (whether they appreciate their danger or not), Hamas must be destroyed. This Israel will do because it must to survive as a vibrant, confident nation that lives up to its founding purpose. And it will do so with or without American support. October 7 touched a raw nerve. For many in the rest of world, hundreds, or thousands of miles from the scene of Hamas’ crimes, they see it as a terrible thing but still just business as usual. However, for Israelis, October 7 was an existential moment that touched a raw nerve. Israeli society cannot recover without ending Hamas’ threat, and Hezbollah’s for that matter, too.
Israel’s Gaza War Goals
They are three, much intertwined:
Dismantling Hamas’s military capability.
Ending Hamas’ control of Gaza.
Getting the hostages back (I will add—as many as possible without jeopardizing the first two goals. Israel cannot afford to jeopardize the safety of its nine million citizens to achieve return of the remaining Hamas hostages.)
Dismantling Hamas’ Military Capacity:
On October 7, Hamas had about 30,000 soldiers most of which were divided into 24 battalions composed of about 1,000 soldiers each. In addition, Islamic Jihad had 5,000-10,000 fighters. Of those battalions, 18.5 of them have been defeated. That does not mean that all members of the battalions are dead, but it does mean that their command structure has been broken and that at least 50% of each units’ soldiers are dead or wounded. For example, the ten battalions that Hamas stationed in norther Gaza are no longer organized and are down to 4-5,000 people. They can still cause mischief, but they cannot hold ground or engage in operations other than hit-and-run attacks. And, importantly, whereas it once required an IDF division bludgeoning its way into the built-up areas to deal with them, with Hamas’ lower numbers and present lack of organization coupled with the added intelligence the IDF has obtained through captured computers, interrogation, etc., it now only requires brigades to deal with the terrorists in the north. Because brigades are much smaller units than divisions, the footprint of destruction and impact on civilians is less.
One example of the difference is the initial operation at al-Shifa hospital in November 2023 and the one a few days ago. In 2023, that operation required a much larger force structure. Because of the condemnation Israel received (undeserved given how Hamas cravenly used the Hospital to hide in), Hamas thought it could get away with again massing its forces inside the hospital grounds. Not so fast! Using mostly special forces, the IDF returned to clean Hamas out—resulting in the death of scores of terrorists and the capture of several hundred—most of which who voluntarily gave themselves up. This subsequent operation was accomplished with less collateral damage than the first one, because the force structure required was reduced due to the lack of Hamas operative command cohesion.
As for determining the number of remaining terrorist forces, here is a little math. The IDF’s best estimates are that it has killed between 11,000-12,000 terrorists in Gaza plus another 1,300 in Israel on or after October 7. Being conservative, based on experience in other wars, that means at least another 13,000 (1:1 ration between killed and injured) terrorists have been injured. Of course, there could be more dead and wounded, but knowing what happened underground as opposed to bodies found above ground is difficult to determine. In addition, another 2,000 terrorists have been captured. But that leaves up to 15,000 Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists still alive and able to fight. Where are they?
Rafah for the most part.
In Rafah, Hamas still has four intact battalions. Originally, each had about 1,000 soldiers, but now their ranks have been swollen to about 2,000 each by terrorists fleeing from north and central Gaza. In addition, there are other terrorist elements not directly affiliated in the battalions. All told, the number in Rafah is around 10,000 highly organized fighters—way too many to leave intact.
Fortunately, Hamas does not have much of its rocket force left. It started the war with perhaps 13,000. Few are left, having been mostly fired or destroyed. Estimates are that of the longer-range ones, less than ten percent remain and the IDF has reduced Hamas’ shorter range mortar capability by more than three fourths. In addition, the IDF has destroyed most, if not all, major rocket manufacturing sites.
The news on the tunnels is not as good. Of the more than 300 miles of tunnels in Gaza, the IDF has only destroyed about 35% of them. Let’s explore why. To clear them out and search for intelligence, it requires soldiers to go underground. There, Hams placed blast proof doors, hidden explosive traps, and fighters. Even the best trained IDF special forces soldiers lose much of their edge to a guy with an AK-47 standing thirty yards away in the dark just out of range of IDF lights. Furthermore, the tunnels are often stacked. One could be fifty feet underground, below that another fifty feet might be another headed in the same or different direction, with a couple more below them as deep as 200 feet. Between the tunnels, shafts connect them, many unknown until the tunnel is explored. It is like a hidden city that needs to be unraveled foot-by-foot on both a horizontal and vertical axis.
What a nightmare to fight in! Especially because the IDF cannot destroy the tunnels wholesale without investigation and careful consideration due to the threat to civilians, the potential presence of hostages, and the need to find the strategic locations where the factories were located and the leadership hides. In fact, in one instance, there is evidence that Sinwar made a rapid escape as the IDF approached, leaving a large cache of money and other items behind.
Ending Hamas’ Control of Gaza:
Hamas does not think it is finished. Nor necessarily do the people of Gaza think Hamas is finished. To drive that point home with clarity and to end their political control, Hamas’ military capability must be dismantled. Until then, nobody else will have the will to emerge to take the mantle of leadership. Not local Gazans, not anyone in the international community, and certainly not a PA that barely survives in the West Bank today. In fact, Hamas is already killing Gazans that collaborate with Israel and continues to steal Gazan humanitarian aid in large quantities.
Therefore, Hamas must be finished off. To do that, the IDF must take Hamas’ last refuge in Rafah. That will extinguish Hamas’ military capabilities which will end its political rule. Once accomplished, that will put an end to the heavy fighting in Gaza and set the stage for new civilian rule. It will also end the opportunity for remaining terrorists to smuggle new arms in from Egypt or move back and forth from Gaza to the rest of the world with ease. Going forward, Dermer says, Israel must have an inspection mechanism for goods coming into Gaza and ensure that no more tunnels run from Egypt into Gaza.
As for moving civilians from Rafah, it is indeed possible to do so. Remember, as Yaakov Lappin said, Israel already has had experience moving a million people out of northern Gaza. It can do it again. Especially if the humanitarian resources are put in place and Hamas is prevented from interfering. It will not be easy, there will be difficulties, but it is doable. And keep in mind, no country has ever been required or asked to go to such lengths to evacuate a largely hostile population, but Israel will do its best.
The Day After
Commentators, politicians, and armchair-quarterbacks rail on about the day after. And Dermer is very clear, private conversations about the day after are fine, but there cannot be public ones. First, doing so exposes to danger as long as Hamas survives those willing to stand up. Second, any plan Israel puts forward will be dead on arrival. Instead, what Israel needs to do is try to shape plans behind the scenes, leading where it can but also trying to prevent inclusion by the United States or other Arab countries into a plan of anything that Israel cannot live with. That must also include deradicalization coupled with demilitarization.
Some think deradicalization is not feasible. But Saudia Arabia is doing it. So is the United Arab Emirates. So too it can be the case in Gaza if reconstruction is linked to deradicalization, especially in the schools. But to succeed, Dermer is clear, that requires a resounding Israeli victory. A limp wrist finish that leaves the leadership of Hamas intact, military forces still under its control, and a portion of land that it controls is a recipe for disaster. Nobody will be willing to confront it and the evil circling Israel now at Iran’s behest will be emboldened.
Dermer reminds us, Nazism is still an idea. So is ISIS. Those ideas may well exist in basements in America as well as the rest of the world. But they are not coupled with control of territory. Nor are they coupled with an army. People can think what they want, but without a place to grow and an organized terror army they can create mischief but not control. That is the lesson of both Germany and Japan after World War II. Both were filled with evil before and during the war. America deradicalized both leaving a few with their ideas intact but without the power to implement them.
Which leads us to a short discussion of the Palestinian Authority (PA). The PA has failed to deradicalize the West Bank. Through its education systems, its payments to so-called terrorist martyrs, and its refusal to deal with local terrorists it has heightened radicalization there. Thus, it comes as no surprise that a poll found that 85% of Palestinians in the West Bank supported Hamas’ attack. Therefore, there is no realistic scenario in which any vestige of the PA could run Gaza when it has proved so feckless, inept, and corrupt governing the West Bank. That would only be a recipe for the return of Hamas’ or something perhaps even worse.
Hostage Issue:
On October 7, Hamas took between 240-250 hostages back to Gaza, some of whom were no longer alive. Since then, 112 have come home leaving an estimated 134 still there, of which an unknown number are dead. Public statements indicate that the deal on the table that Hamas previously rejected would have led to the return of another 40 hostages. Today, there are reports that Israel has agreed to an American proposal designed to bridge the gap between Hamas and Israel concerning the number of terrorists Israel will release in return for release of Israel’s female soldiers held in captivity.
Whether there will be an agreement is speculative at best and the negotiations have been tortuous. Messages to and from Hamas move circuitously, reportedly taking up to a day and a half for responses. Meanwhile, outside pressure on Israel to hold off entering Rafah only serves to reduce the pressure on Hamas’ leadership to deal by giving them time and hope that they will emerge intact without having to back-off their maximal positions that includes the IDF agreeing to a permanent ceasefire and withdrawing from at least some parts of Gaza.
Nevertheless, I hope the negotiations succeed but they may not because of an impasse over whether there will be a temporary or permanent ceasefire.
In summary:
A resounding Israeli victory is the only path to peace in Gaza. It is also the only path to normalization with Saudi Arabia. Without victory, nobody will engage in the peace process, Iran and its proxies will apply more pressure on Israel and the Western world, and Hamas will reconstitute—all endangering the viability of Israel. It is my fervent hope that America will join with Israel to ensure that victory—not with boots on the ground but with political support and weaponry. But if not, Israel will do it alone.
Because it has no choice.
Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, March 23, 2024
I am happy to inform you that Jewish News Syndicate last week published an opinion piece by me that was picked up by newspapers. It was an abbreviated form of the Newsletter essay I wrote in about there can be no compromise with evil.
An armed resident walks amid the ashes of a heavily damaged building in kibbutz Alumim, following the October 7 attack by Hamas fighters, in southern Israel near the Gaza Strip on October 18, 2023. GIL COHEN-MAGEN/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
Black Sabbath: The Defenders of Kibbutz Alumim Fought off Palestinian Terror Squads on Oct. 7 and Saved Their Homes and Families—Written by Bruce Maddy-Weitzman for Tablet—March 20, 2024
How to Ensure Israel Has the Weapons It Needs—Written by Bradley Bowmen and Richard Goldberg for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies—March 14, 2024
Editor's Notes: How Daniel Hagari Can Win the Narrative War for the IDF - comment—Written by Zvika Klein for the Jerusalem Post—
Israel’s Humanitarian Aid Efforts—March 22, 2024
Hamas Attack ‘Weapon of Mass Distraction’ as Iran Nuke Program Advances—Written by Yaakov Lappin for Jewish News Syndicate—March 21, 2024
Don’t Blame Israel for the Surge in Antisemitism—Jonathan S. Tobin for Jewish News Syndicate—March 20, 2024
The Palestinians' Fraudulent Casualty Figures, Exposed—Written by Joshua Hoffman for Future of Jewish —March 20, 2024
Israel’s Struggle with Hezbollah—A War Without End is now available in eBook and hardback format on Amazon and IngramSpark. This compelling narrative explores Hezbollah’s origins and cancerous growth, traces Israel’s response, and reveals Israel’s present readiness to meet Hezbollah’s challenge.
Cliff Sobin
Important Link—Alma Research and Education Center: Understanding the Security Challenges on Israel’s Northern Border
Thank-you for this article. It is so comprehensive yet not overwhelming. I live the situation you are writing about; I read about it using many different sources; and I write about it -- and I can say that you have explained the current situation far more comprehensibly than anything I have yet come across.
You have also introduced me to Ron Dermer -- to the person that he is and not just the tasks he has been assigned. Thank-you for that, as well.