A couple hours ago, Israel’s government issued a statement indicating its approval of a deal for releasing some of the hostages. Per the statement, the deal includes:
A pause in the fighting for four days.
Hamas release of at least 50 abducted women and children over those four days.
For each Hamas release of an additional 10 abductees beyond the fifty (up to 30 more), Israel will pause its offensive one more day.
Other reporting suggests that additional aspects of the deal include:
Israel will not fly surveillance over Gaza (drones and balloons, not clear about airplanes) for a six hour period each day.
More humanitarian aid, including fuel, will be permitted to enter Gaza.
The initial group of fifty Israeli citizens to be released will include 30 children, eight mothers and twelve other women. This will still leave 10 children in captivity.
Israel will release 150 Palestinian women and children (many classified as children have been terrorist combatants in their teenage years)—none of whom have directly involved in terror attacks that have led to fatalities.
In addition, Hamas might release some hostages with Thai citizenship and other governments may negotiate to free their citizens.
Gazans who fled south will not be permitted to return to northern Gaza during the pause.
Hamas will give the Red Cross access to those abductees still remaining and Hamas will permit the Red Cross to supply the abductees with medicine.
If this unprecedented event happens, an army on the march to victory will have risked certain success by pausing its offensive purely for humanitarian reasons. America didn’t do that in World War Two, Korea, or in Iraq. The Allies didn’t do that in World War One. The Russians didn’t do that in Ukraine and now nobody is asking the Ukrainians to do that. Nor did the Syrians, Russians, or Iranian proxies like Hezbollah do that in the Syrian Civil War. In fact, I cannot think of one side in a war pausing its advance for reasons other than ones on the battlefield that benefit it (like perhaps a city surrendering or its populace leaving)—I am sure there might be examples but I just can’t think of one.
So, should Israel have agreed to a pause in return for a partial hostage release? I don’t think any of us should articulate an answer, just understanding for the tortured decision that Israel is now making, and might have to continue to make.
However, to help all of us understand the issues, and to prepare for what may come, I thought it might be of interest to you for me to list many of the pros and cons of Israel pausing its offensive in Gaza.
Positives
Every hostage released is a life saved. And in Israel, where so much of the citizenry is interconnected by family, friendships, or just a common bond—this feeling of mutual responsibility to save the hostages is especially pronounced.
If the Red Cross gets access to the abductees and thereby identifies those that are living by name and records their medical status, some of Hamas’ future effectiveness in the information war might be jeopardized should Hamas later kill or torture any of them.
Perhaps, by debriefing the released hostages, Israel will receive information regarding the location and movement of the remaining hostages.
A delay might permit the establishment of temporary camps, perhaps in Muwasi in southwest Gaza, which would provide safety for noncombatant Gazans when the IDF moves into southern Gaza. It might also provide an opportunity to bring more food, water and medical supplies to noncombatants in Gaza such as the field hospital the UAE plans to set up in Gaza.
IDF soldiers will be able to rest and resupply although I suspect they would rather get the job done now than wait until later.
Perils
Will release of some hostages imperil the remaining hostages? Many Israelis believe a pause will release pressure on Hamas, thereby lengthening the stay for the remaining hostages with all the risk that entails for them.
Will the cost of securing future hostage releases increase? Of note, no men and likely no female IDF soldiers are being released. It is almost certain that Hamas will demand more for them as well as each new batch of others that it releases. Likely, that will include longer pauses and release of terrorists in Israeli prisons with blood on their hands. If Israel refuses, will Hamas take that refusal out on the hostages it still holds? Will that increase understandable domestic pressure on Israel’s government to do what benefits the hostage families but not necessarily the country.
Will Israel be able to restart its offensive in the face of intense pressure not to? There is no doubt pressure on Israel will mount as the focus of media increasingly turns to the plight of Gazans if there is a renewal of fighting contrasted to the joys of those Israelis released. There will likely be a plethora of diplomatic activity, threatened sanctions, and traditional and social media campaigns to vilify any new Israel offensive. Genocide epithets will fill the airways, demonstrators will turn out in the streets, and all sorts of opinion pieces will be written demanding a continuing ceasefire. Added to the clamor will be the voices of sanctimonious national leaders driven by their own antisemitism and fear of their domestic populations.
Will more IDF soldiers die as a result of a pause because Hamas be able to improve its defenses? Hamas apparently demanded that the skies of Gaza be freed of surveillance for six hours per day. The purported excuse was that Hamas needed to gather those abductees held by other factions in Gaza. No doubt that is a blatant lie. Hamas will improve its defenses and redistribute its manpower, weaponry and provisions. Some of this activity will add to the staying power of their defensive positions and perhaps other movements will be designed to evacuate cut-off locations. Everything Hamas does will make it harder for the IDF to dislodge and destroy them. Thus, the price for those six-hour windows freed of surveillance combined with the several day pause will be paid with the blood of IDF soldiers.
Will a pause further damage Israel’s economy? The longer this war goes, the more costly it will be. A pause will certainly lengthen the war by the number of days of the pause. But but because Hamas will use the time to improve its positions, each pause day might cause a delay of two or more days. Each day of war will cost Israel millions in lost economic activity. Just think of the tourism costs of all the planes not flying in, let alone the slowdown of the rest of the economy that since October 7 has lost much of its vital human power.
Will Hamas selectively violate terms of the pause, and use Israel’s response to cease hostage releases and vilify Israel? Even when the parties have the best of intentions, a temporary pause in the fighting is hard to maintain. What would you do if you were an IDF soldier manning your post and a Hamas terrorist popped out of a tunnel with a gun pointed at you. Do you wait to see if he fires or do you shoot him? And what about if Hamas employs a sniper to kill a soldier when there are no cameras present to record his actions (remember that six-hour window)? There are a myriad of scenarios, intentional or not, where who is at fault for the shooting starting again will be questioned. And if history is a guide, the press will not be sympathetic to Israel’s side of the story.
What will happen then? Will Hamas stop releasing hostages and set-off a frenzy of anti-Israel media? Of course it will.Will Hamas syphon off some of the humanitarian supplies coming into Gaza for its own benefit? I am sure Hamas will try. Why should it not? Who will stop it? Who will know about it and have the courage to report it? Remember that six-hour window free of aerial surveillance.
Will pressure mount for further pauses, especially from nations whose civilians are still held hostage? Of course that will happen. In the end, nations act in their self-interest. I doubt many national leaders will put the interests of Israel over the plight of their citizens.
Unknowns
What will Hezbollah do during a pause? For the last several days, Hezbollah has increased the number of its cross-border attacks into Israel. Will that continue? What happens if Israel finds it necessary to respond with greater force during the pause than it has to date? Will Hamas consider that a breach of the deal?
What will Iran do during a pause? Any pause benefits Iran. I am certain it is ratcheting up its nuclear weapon development while Israel and the world are otherwise occupied. Also certain, is that Iran will continue to push its Houthi proxy to take more aggressive action—as we have already seen with its recent hijack of an Israeli-owner-linked ship in the Red Sea.
What will happen along Israel’s border with Syria? Same concerns as with Hezbollah. To what extent will Hamas tie that arena into the pause in Gaza?
How will public opinion in Muslim countries impact their government actions? The longer this war goes on, the more risk there is that the Arab street will push more moderate Arab states to take more aggressive action towards Israel. For now, that has been limited to rhetoric. That could change as time goes on, especially if leaders of those states begin to worry whether they can hold onto power.
I have listed these concerns to give you some idea of the complexity of the hostage deal that Israel appears ready to make, in part, so that you can judge for yourself. But even more so, so that you can prepare yourself for what is to come. If this deal happens, and it is no certainty yet as I write this that it will, much more will follow. Hopefully good, but very possibly bad. And if bad, we will be called upon to fight the information war to follow—a war that I fear will be even worse than the one we are already experiencing.
Get ready.
Daily Update: Israel at War Day 46 Nov. 21, 2023, 20:00 PM Israel Time—Written by the Alma Research Staff
New Report by IMPACT-se highlights textbooks and terrorism in UNWRA Palestinian schools—Written by Yaakov Lappin for the Alma Education and Research Center—November 17, 2021—What a surprise, United Nations complicity in virulent hate education against Israel and Jews.
Swords of Iron: The Problem of Hostages and Missing Persons—By Col. (res.) Shai Shabtai—November 19, 2023—for the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.
Israel’s Struggle with Hezbollah—A War Without End is now available in eBook and hardback format on Amazon and IngramSpark. This compelling narrative explores Hezbollah’s origins and cancerous growth, traces Israel’s response, and reveals Israel’s present readiness to meet Hezbollah’s challenge.
Cliff Sobin
Important Link—Alma Research and Education Center: Understanding the Security Challenges on Israel’s Northern Border