Tension remains high along Israel’s northern borders and so does stupidity. At the end of August, the United Nations Security Council, as it does every year, will decide whether to reaffirm UNIFIL’s mandate to patrol Southern Lebanon and under what conditions. Last year, the Security Council did so, but amended its mandate to make clear that UNIFIL could operate without coordinating its activities with Lebanon’s army (and therefore in reality, Hezbollah). But that never happened. UNIFL’s commander buckled to pressure from Lebanon and Hezbollah and as a result, UNIFIL continued to act in its feckless manner. This year, with the likelihood of war increasing, and Hezbollah acting in an increasingly provocative manner, Lebanon is seeking to eliminate the amendments to ensure that UNIFIL remains hamstrung. The United States is president of the National Security Council this month. Let’s see what happens.
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Hezbollah is Moving Toward Conflict with Israel— August 10, 2023 — Written by Sarit Zehavi for Alma — “Since the summer of 2022, we at the Alma Center have been assessing that Hezbollah is moving toward conflict with Israel.”
In Nightmare Scenario, IDF Tries to Predict What Flare-Up with Hezbollah Could Look Like— August 7, 2023 — Written by Lilach Shovel for Israel Hayom — “As part of contingency, military prepares for a reality in which thousands of rockets get launched into Israeli territory daily, with Israel's economy all but paralyzed.”
Is Israel Willing to Strike Iranian Efforts to Destabilize the North - Analysis— August 12, 2023 — Written by Jonathan Spyer for The Jerusalem Post — “Continued successes of Israeli air power over Syria are worthy of note. Nevertheless, given the broader realities outlined here, the increasingly urgent question is whether the current dimensions of the war between wars remain adequate for addressing the task at hand, namely, the need to strike at the full fabric of the Iranian effort to Israel’s North, both in order to substantively weaken this effort and to rebuild deterrence against its most forward elements.”
Jitters Grow Along Lebanon Border as Hezbollah Provocations Become More Brazen— August 4, 2023 — Written by Emanuel Fabian for The Times of Israel — Ghajar is a peaceful Alawite town, straddling Israel’s border with Lebanon, in which most residents voluntarily chose to become Israeli citizens. However, while they “say things are calm, military and residents of other towns fear potential war with [Hezbollah].”
Israel’s Struggle with Hezbollah—A War Without End is now available in eBook and hardback format on Amazon and IngramSpark. This compelling narrative explores Hezbollah’s origins and cancerous growth, traces Israel’s response, and reveals Israel’s present readiness to meet Hezbollah’s challenge.
Cliff Sobin
Important Link—Alma Research and Education Center: Understanding the Security Challenges on Israel’s Northern Border