Nasrallah Speaks - What Will the Future Bring? And, Straight Talk From Jonathan Conricus.
November 4, 2023 - Issue #27
Nasrallah’s Speech:
Yesterday, in a media extravaganza, Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, spoke to his adoring, flag waiving masses in a public square. Except, he was not there. Instead, his much-ballyhooed hour-plus speech was a pre-recorded event presented on a large screen to them and to the rest of the world. CNN reporter, Ben Wedeman, on-the-ground in Lebanon said, “In the lead up to the speech, Hezbollah supporters put out what some called trailers with an ominous tone of what might be coming. After the speech, the word here in Lebanon was that the trailers were better than the film.”
I agree. Sort of.
But before I get into an analysis and prediction, here are a few quotes from the speech:
First, a few of his blatant lies:
“This operation is the result of a 100% Palestinian decision.”
“The October 7 operation was planned in total secrecy. Even other Palestinian factions were not privy to it, let alone resistance movements abroad,”
“All the civilians (in Israel) who are accused of being killed by Hamas died from the bullets of the Israeli army, which was acting in a reckless manner.”
“Today, the United States is entirely responsible for the war in Gaza, and Israel is only an instrument for carrying it out.”
Second, about the past and future:
“Regarding our Lebanese front, we entered the battle on October 8th.”
“What is happening on our front is very significant. For those who are asking Hezbollah to engage in open warfare, what is happening on the border may appear moderate, but that is not the case. And we will not be content with this.”
“Its escalation depends on two things: the development of the situation in Gaza and the behavior of the Zionist enemy towards Lebanon. Here, we warn them again, especially regarding the civilians who have become martyrs.”
“The only factor that will affect our position is the progression of the war. I tell Israel: do not go any further. Many civilians have already died. I promise you: A civilian for a civilian.”
“We all must work for the victory of the resistance in Gaza.”
I believe the following:
Given the public and private coordination Hezbollah, Iran, and Hamas have had leading up to October 7, it stretches credulity to think that Nasrallah did not receive at least some indication of what was to come, if not a clear heads-up and possibly participation in an approval process that certainly included Iran, a key benefactor of both Hezbollah and Hamas.
Given Nasrallah’s blatant, scandalous lies about who killed Israel’s citizens, not one word of his should be believed.
Given his lie that the United States was responsible for the war in Gaza should rankle even the most jaundiced Palestinian advocate as long as they retain a shred of intellectual honesty.
Nasrallah is concerned about politics within Lebanon. With a sinking economy and an ongoing political debacle within the country, most clearly seen in Lebanon’s inability to select a president, Nasrallah wants to do everything possible to distance Hezbollah from planning and knowledge of October 7. And, he is maneuvering to blame Israel for any future increase in fighting in the north. Nasrallah needs to do this because if Hezbollah engages in a confrontation with Israel, the damage done to Lebanon will be incalculable and therefore potentially impact Hezbollah’s grip on power there.
Nasrallah signaled that its fight with Israel may intensify, but purposely left ambiguous the conditions. Why? Because he is seeking space to maneuver in a changing geopolitical and military situation. Not because he is not interested in initiating a confrontation when he feels the time is right.
Hezbollah and Iran remain focused on Israel’s destruction. In Nasrallah’s speech, he alluded to the significant economic disruption Israel is experiencing due to evacuation of communities along the northern borders. I suspect that he hopes to continue and intensify that situation by slowly ratcheting up the number of military attacks, each time hoping that Israel will accept this change in the “Rules of the Game” by only launching pinprick strikes in response.
Why Israel Must Respond at Some Point:
It is unacceptable to allow Hezbollah to prolong the evacuation of the population of northern Israel along the borders, including the two major towns of Metula and Kiryat Shmona, making a ghost town of them and tens of other settlements. Similarly, Israel cannot permit its road network in the north to become no-go zones. Nor can it allow the mere decision to take a walk close to the border a life-or-death calculation. No sovereign nation would accept this. No terrorist organization can be permitted to achieve this. Therefore, either Hezbollah will have to back down once Israel has achieved its military objectives in Gaza or the IDF must force it to. I’m betting on the latter but hoping for the former.
Given the events of October 7, Israel must permanently alter the dynamic in place along the northern borders since 2006. Hezbollah must not retain the capability to do the same or worse than Hamas did on October 7. Otherwise, many Israelis will elect to not return to their homes, schools, and businesses. Therefore, this calls for drastic change which include one or more of the following: IDF enforcement of a buffer zone several miles into Lebanon, a robust change in the mandate of UNIFIL and the Lebanese army that ensures they vigorously enforce a weapons free area stretching several miles back from the border, or a pre-emptive attack by the IDF designed to push Hezbollah back beyond the Litani River and drastically reduce its missile firing capability (an extremely difficult and costly but possibly necessary option).
Spokesperson Jonathan Conricus:
Of all the Israeli spokespersons, I find him the most effective—not just for what he says but how he delivers the message (disclaimer—I have interviewed him twice). On twitter, you can find him at @jconricus. Three recent comments of his, paraphrased by me, stand out:
“All of our strikes have an address, and that address is Hamas.” My recollection is that this comment was in response to a TV interviewer’s question about the recent destruction of an ambulance in Gaza. Hamas routinely uses ambulances to transport its leaders, soldiers, and armaments. It appears that may have been the case in this instance, although the information is still scanty. But even if it was an error, or a miscalculation of the cost-benefit of such a strike, it would still be an error caused by Hamas’ blatant misuse of ambulances to protect its forces (some proof of which is documented by video showing red cross vehicles parked at Hamas locations).
“All information coming out of Gaza is run and ruled by Hamas.” Conricus made this comment to warn that there is grave doubt about the information used by many media organizations as a basis for their stories. He is correct to do so. Nothing controlled by Hamas should be believed because anyone in Gaza courageous enough to question the party line will not survive (physically or at a minimum in-place).
An admonition to the press to hold Hamas’ feet to the same fire regarding information supplied by Hamas or its affiliates as they do for Israel—This is especially important regarding how the press often constructs its more sensational negative stories about Israel. First, there is a gripping, awful headline. Second, some press reports add that the information was supplied from medical or other supposed humanitarian sources controlled by Hamas. Third, sometimes the press adds an Israeli denial (of course proving a negative is often difficult and in the best of cases takes time). Fourth, comes the disclaimer, once in a while, that the information has not been verified by the news source. Unfortunately, the average reader viscerally reacts to the sensational headline and ignores the nuance of disclaimers that might follow. In short, the damage is done. The main point here is that until the press has verified its information (or at least done some due diligence), it should not publish, or at least refrain form sensationalizing it (perhaps put the disclaimers first not last). Failing to do so does incalculable damage to the truth and results in antisemitic attacks and vilification of Israel worldwide, as we saw with the reporting malpractice of many in the press regarding their reporting of the cause of deaths of many Palestinians at a hospital in Gaza earlier in the war.
Below, is a recent interview of Conricus by Chris Cuomo. I strongly encourage you to watch it.
Link - https://twitter.com/jconricus/status/1720628147509395884
The Hamas, PIJ, and PFLP Strongholds in Lebanon Threatening a Multi-Front War on Israel—YouTube by Colin David for Alma—November 2, 2023
New Websites Show Firsthand Tragic Accounts of October 7 Massacre—Written by Maya Zanger-Nadis for the Jerusalem Post—November 4, 2023
Israel’s Struggle with Hezbollah—A War Without End is now available in eBook and hardback format on Amazon and IngramSpark. This compelling narrative explores Hezbollah’s origins and cancerous growth, traces Israel’s response, and reveals Israel’s present readiness to meet Hezbollah’s challenge.
Cliff Sobin
Important Link—Alma Research and Education Center: Understanding the Security Challenges on Israel’s Northern Border