Was the Megiddo Terrorist Attack and the Missile Strike from South Lebanon a Harbinger of More of the Same?
Unfortunately, the answer to the headline question above, is likely yes. The five articles presented below make clear that Hezbollah is likely to further test the boundaries of Israel’s desire not to escalate in the coming days, weeks, and months. Whether that means more missile attacks, drone incursions, terrorist acts, or something new or from multiple directions remains to be seen. But the likelihood of Hezbollah involvement is high. Should you have any doubt, and wonder what happened to UNIFIL, whose job is to ensure that nobody other than the Lebanese Armed Forces have weapons in south Lebanon, read this article from Alma and check out the truly alarming video incorporated in it. Hezbollah now openly flouts UNIFIL’s impotency.
Meanwhile, I will be heading to Israel shortly to explore further with experts there what Israel must do re-establish deterrence. I will be investigating closely the issue of Israel striking first and the danger presented by Hezbollah’s Radwan forces. If you have any questions you would like me to ask while I am there, please email me.
And to all of you receiving this bi-monthly newsletter for the first time, please write to me about what you think could be improved. And, of course, unsubscribe if you would rather not get this. But, if you think it worthwhile, please forward this newsletter to anybody who you think would be interested in reading it.
Why is Israel Under Attack from Several Fronts Simultaneously at the Present Time?—April 10, 2023—Written by Sarit Zehavi and Tal Beeri, for Alma. This article, and the accompanying Hezbollah propaganda video it highlights, makes clear that there is more to come from Hezbollah.
The Lessons After Ten Days of Iran-Israel Conflict—Analysis—April 11, 2023—written by Seth J. Frantzman for the Jerusalem Post. A thoughtful analysis that suggests Israel’s deterrence has gone downhill and the status quo may well be changing.
Hezbollah and its Allies are More Emboldened Than They Have Been in Nearly Two Decades.—April 13, 2023—Written by Nicholas Blandford for the Atlantic Council. The author argues persuasively that there is no doubt that Hezbollah was behind, or at least colluded with Hamas regarding the April 6 missile attack into Israel, and ominously predicts more is to come.
Halevi's Horizon: What Awaits the New Israeli Defense Chief of Staff —April 17, 2023—Written by Jacob Nagel and Jonathan Schanzer for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. While not focusing exclusively on Hezbollah, this highly informative read is a fantastic survey of what Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, Israel’s new military Chief of Staff, faces.
Gallant Warns Multi-Front War Far More Likely for Israel Than Limited Conflicts —April 20, 2023—Written by Emanuel Fabian for Times of Israel. Defense Minister Gallant, seemingly now more entrenched than ever in his role after being momentarily sacked by Netanyahu for speaking out during the judiciary crisis, issued this stark warning.
Israel’s Struggle with Hezbollah—A War Without End is now available in eBook and hardback format on Amazon. This compelling narrative explores Hezbollah’s origins and cancerous growth, traces Israel’s response, and reveals Israel’s present readiness to meet Hezbollah’s challenge. Sales have been brisk, surpassing my expectations.
New projects I will be investigating while I am in Israel include:
a) The story of a survivor of the 1973 Yom Kippur war who made Aliyah from India, saved his comrades during the war, and then spent months as a POW in Syria.
b) Is a preventative attack on Hezbollah viable now or in the foreseeable future?
c) What was life like at an Israeli outpost in south Lebanon between 1982-2000?
Cliff Sobin
Important Link—Alma Research and Education Center: Understanding the Security Challenges on Israel’s Northern Border