On May 2, 2023, I spent the night in Metula, at the northern tip of Israel. About 2:00 a.m., the Red Alert app on my phone repeatedly set off alarms. Now thoroughly awake, I saw that rockets fired from Gaza were raining down on surrounding civilian areas in Israel. Of course, Israel responded by launching strikes on military sites in Gaza. But, I wondered, would Hezbollah now send missiles whistling towards northern Israel. Nevertheless, since there was nothing I could do about it, I rolled over and fell back asleep. In the morning, I had breakfast after observing Hezbollah operatives from my hotel window lounging around a Palestinian flag just over the border. No new rockets were fired. It was just another day in northern Israel.
Over the two days before, I drove along border roads and was struck by the number of Hezbollah outposts, often near Israeli bases, that I saw. By one estimate I read, they now number twenty-seven. Also, repeatedly, I saw Hezbollah’s minions on hilltops, just gazing into Israel. The number of encounters i experienced were dramatically more than only one year ago. Below, is a picture of one outpost very close to the road I was on.
This newsletter contains six articles of particular interest that together capture what is now happening. And, for your general interest, golf enthusiasts should click here.
And to all of you receiving this bi-monthly newsletter for the first time, please write to me about what you think could be improved. And, of course, unsubscribe if you would rather not get this. But, if you think it worthwhile, please forward this newsletter to anybody who you think would be interested in reading it.
The Multi-Front War Against Israel—A Webinar sponsored by the Endowment for Middle East Truth (EMET), moderated by its President, Sarah Stern, and featuring the founder of Alma, Lt. Col. (Ret.) Sarit Zehavi—April 19, 2023
Iran-Hezbollah Network in Syria and the Aftermath of Homs Airstrikes—Analysis—April 30, 2023—written by Seth J. Frantzman for the Jerusalem Post. This article highlights Iran’s attempts to continue its practice of moving weapons through Syria to Hezbollah and Israel’s reaction.
Lebanon is in Trouble-Opinion—May 2, 2023—Written by Neville Teller for the Jerusalem Post. This is an excellent overview of Lebanon’s internal political, legal, and economic problems.
Israel May Have to Change its Deterrence Equation with Hezbollah—May 1, 2023—Written by Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer for The Institute for National Security Studies. The title is self-explanatory. Along with pre-emption, it is the subject of my present research for a new book. I will be interviewing one of the authors tomorrow.
Gallant Warns Multi-Front War Far More Likely for Israel Than Limited Conflicts —April 20, 2023—Written by Emanuel Fabian for Times of Israel. Defense Minister Gallant, seemingly now more entrenched than ever in his role after being momentarily sacked by Netanyahu for speaking out during the judiciary crisis, issued this stark warning.
Iranian Foreign Minister’s Visit to Lebanon (April 26, 2023)- Review —May 1, 2023—Written by Tal Beeri for Alma. An overview of the Visit and a startling picture from an observation point in Lebanon into Israel.
Israel’s Struggle with Hezbollah—A War Without End is now available in eBook and hardback format on Amazon. This compelling narrative explores Hezbollah’s origins and cancerous growth, traces Israel’s response, and reveals Israel’s present readiness to meet Hezbollah’s challenge.
My trip to Israel is not yet complete, but already I have gained many new insights from the conversations I have had with experts here and the things I have seen. In the next newsletter, I will share some of that with you.
Cliff Sobin
Important Link—Alma Research and Education Center: Understanding the Security Challenges on Israel’s Northern Border