Israel vs. Hezbollah: It's Time for Israel to Win not Cease its Fire - And, Nasrallah May be Dead!
September 27 , 2024 - Issue #60
A few hours ago, Israel launched a strike on Hezbollah’s main headquarters in Beirut. The attack may have killed Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and many other high-level Hezbollah leaders. Israeli sources seem increasingly confident that Nasrallah is dead. If so, we will be entering a new phase of both opportunity and uncertainty, not only for Israel but for the people of Lebanon that yearn to be freed from Hezbollah’s control.
Below, are my thoughts concerning a ceasefire and what Israel must do.
To use a phrase a good friend taught me, “For fuck’s sake,” you must be kidding me!
On September 25, the United States, France and other countries floated a non-sensical one-sided proposal for a ceasefire along Israel’s northern borders. Below are the important portions of the text followed by my commentary that explains why the proposal is a non-starter (here is a link to the full text):
The situation between Lebanon and Israel since October 8th, 2023 is intolerable and presents an unacceptable risk of a broader regional escalation….Thus we call for an immediate 21 day ceasefire across the Lebanon-Israel border to provide space for diplomacy towards the conclusion of a diplomatic settlement consistent with UNSCR 1701, and the implementation of UNSCR 2735 regarding a ceasefire in Gaza.We call on all parties, including the Governments of Israel and Lebanon, to endorse the temporary ceasefire immediately consistent with UNSCR 1701 during this period, and to give a real chance to a diplomatic settlement. Notice what is missing:
Any mention of Hezbollah! Instead, it focuses on Lebanon—a rump state controlled by Hezbollah whose non-Shiite population is shackled by Hezbollah’s tyranny.
Any mention that Hezbollah is recognized as a terrorist organization by much of the world, including the United States.
Any mention that Hezbollah’s announced goal is the destruction of Israel.
Any mention that Hezbollah is funded and works at the behest of Iran, whose goal is the destruction of Israel.
Any mention that Hezbollah started firing on Israel on October 8 without provocation and has not stopped.
Any mention that for eleven months American envoy, Amos Hochstein, has failed to secure a diplomatic agreement with Hezbollah that would stop it from shooting and secure the future safety of the citizens of northern Israel.
Any mention that Hezbollah has fired almost 9,000 rockets and drones into Israel over the last eleven months necessitating the evacuation of more than 60,000 Israeli civilians from their homes and causing immense economic and physical destruction in northern Israel, rendering parts of it a wasteland.
Any mention that Hezbollah says it is only willing to stop shooting at Israel if Israel enters into a ceasefire agreement with Hamas—and that Yahya Sinwar, leader of Hamas, has no interest in a ceasefire that does not guarantee Hamas’ survival as a governing entity.
And remember, this is not the first time that the world has pretended that Hezbollah does not exist and does not call the shots. Two decades ago, to end the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah (started when Hezbollah kidnapped and killed IDF soldiers in Israeli territory), the U.N. Security Council issued Resolution 1701, which called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces in Lebanon to be replaced with Lebanese army units and UNIFIL, an entity composed of military units from U.N. designated countries. And, importantly also demanded the “disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon” other than the Lebanese army and UNIFIL and “establishment of between the Blue Line (Israel’s border with Lebanon) and the Litani river of an area “free of any armed personal, assets, and weapons other than those of the Government of Lebanon and UNIFIL.” Israel honored the agreement and withdrew. Hezbollah ignored it. And the Lebanese army and UNIFIL failed to enforce the agreement.
In other words, Resolution 1701 was a lie promulgated by the United Nations. A lie that has put Israel at risk. As a result, we are where we are today—Hezbollah has tens of thousands of armed and trained soldiers in close proximity to Israel’s borders and as of October 7, 2023, had built its missile forces from a few thousand to perhaps 200,000. It also built attack tunnels stretching into Israel and military infrastructure embedded into the 200 Shiite villages in Southern Lebanon.
And now, when Hezbollah is staggered by the body blows the IDF has delivered to it, is Israel supposed to back down and give Hezbollah an opportunity to catch its breath in return for a temporary accommodation with a terrorist army whose continued stated intent is to destroy Israel and that previously violated its commitment to honor Resolution 1701?
But before answering this question, let’s review the recent history of how we got to where we are today as it applies to Hezbollah.
On October 8, Hezbollah attacked an Israel reeling and grieving from Hamas’ terrorist incursion the day before. Israel had not attacked Hezbollah and had no intention of doing so. But Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, sensed an opportunity, seeing weakness in Israel’s despair. As did Iran and its other proxies. And so, unprovoked, Hezbollah began firing into Israel. Within days Israel evacuated 60,000 residents from their homes to save them from Hezbollah’s rocket, missiles and drones. Forcing Israelis to evacuate was a big victory for Hezbollah and Iran who have been clear about their goal—Israel’s demise.
For almost a year, Hezbollah has continued to daily attack Israel—killing civilians, emptying towns, and burning forests. Disingenuously, Nasrallah promised he would stop if there was a ceasefire in Gaza.
Israel had demanded that Hezbollah stop firing and withdraw behind the Litani river. Israel’s demand is not unreasonable. After all, it is what U.N. Resolution 1701, promulgated decades ago, that required that Hezbollah not have any armed forces south of the Litani river. Everybody agreed to that—including the United Nations Security Council on behalf of the world, the U.S. and Lebanon. Everybody, that is, accept Hezbollah who ignored the dictates of the U.N. And who emasculated the peacekeeping force the U.N. sent to southern Lebanon to enforce and report on compliance leaving an innocent Israel in the situation it faces today.
From October 8, 2023 to July 29, 2024, Israel remained on the defensive in the north—retaliating but calibrating its response in hopes that Hezbollah would back down or that international efforts at finding a diplomatic solution would succeed. But meanwhile, the citizens of the north suffered, forced to live in hotels farther south while Hezbollah turned their lands into wasteland.
But in late July, enough became enough. No longer willing to be the punching bag nor willing to rely on counterpunching, Israel began to reset the course of events by becoming the puncher.
July 30, 2024 – An Israeli pinpoint air attack on a building in Beirut killed Fuad Shakr, Hezbollah’s Chief of Staff and #2 to Nasrallah. Already, one of the IDF’s main retaliatory responses had been to kill Hezbollah’s lower-level leaders. By doing so, Israel hoped to weaken Hezbollah’s command and control of its military forces and thereby reduce its ability to conduct offensive and defensive military operations against Israel. Shakr was a very big fish. In response, Nasrallah promised a major retaliation.
August 25 at 4:00 AM – After detecting Hezbollah’s preparations to fire up to 2,000 missiles at Israel in the morning, Israel’s air force attacked first, destroying hundreds of multiple barrel missile launchers. As a result, an hour later Hezbollah could only launch 320 missiles. Israel’s defenses successfully dealt with them.
September 9 – In Syria, near the Lebanese border, the IDF struck the SSRC institute, a location where Iranian forces constructed precision guided missiles for Hezbollah’s use. Helicopters landed IDF special forces that destroyed the underground facility and carried away a trove of intelligence.
September 17 – Israel announced that its security cabinet has expanded Israel’s war goals to include the safe return of its 60,000 evacuated citizens to their homes near the Lebanese border.
September 17 and 18 – At 3:30 PM, about 4,000 pagers possessed by Hezbollah’s minions, most of them if not all commanders, simultaneously blew up. A day later, up to 1,000 walkie talkies that Hezbollah also used for communication exploded. Combined, this Israeli highly targeted espionage marvel, appears to have killed 39 Hezbollah terrorists and wounded 3,200 others. Because the explosives surreptitiously placed in the communication devices were designed to only harm the bearer of them, and because Hezbollah only provided them to its own people in the command chain, these in effect self-targeted explosives caused the loss of very few innocent lives (the reports of two children that died are difficult for me to verify but for now I will accept the truth of it). This stunning blow probably emasculated Hezbollah’s ability to maneuver its forces effectively for at least the short term.
September 19 – Another Israeli air force strike destroyed 1,000 more Hezbollah rocket barrels being readied for firing.
September 20 – Likely because of the communication issues Hezbollah now faces, Ibrahim Aqi, designated as the head of the operations directorate of Hezbollah after Israel assassinated Shakr on July 30, met with fifteen senior Radwan leaders (Hezbollah’s highly trained ground force). Evidently, their meeting did not go as planned since an Israeli missile struck them in mid-conversation, killing them all. The Unites States had an ongoing seven-million-dollar reward for Aqi’s capture because he participated in the bombing of the U.S. marine barracks that killed 241 American marines in 1983.
September 23 – After warning Lebanon’s civilian population to move away from Hezbollah’s military sites, the IDF launched its most massive bombing campaign to date, yet again striking Hezbollah’s missile stockpiles. Over six hours, Israel’s air force significantly degraded Hezbollah’s missile force, by some estimates up to fifty percent. That was more damage inflicted on Hezbollah in a quarter of a day that Israel achieved in 34 days of war against Hezbollah in 2006. Nevertheless, in return, Hezbollah managed to launch 200 rockets into Israeli territory, some as far as Haifa and one towards Tel Aviv.
September 24 – IDF missiles struck and killed Hezbollah’s “rocket chief” Ibrahim Muhammad Kabisi in Beirut plus accompanying commanders and by the end of the day had hit at least 1,500 Hezbollah military targets over the preceding 36 hours.
September 25 – By this day, Israel’s massive and capable 98th division completed its move to the Lebanese border where it is accompanied by two other divisions that have been training to confront Hezbollah in Lebanon. In addition, Israel mobilized two more reserve brigades designated for duty in northern Israel.
September 26 – The IDF, using precision strikes against a building in Beirut, eliminated Hezbollah's drone unit chief Muhammad Hossein Sarur.
September 27 – The IDF struck Hezbollah’s main HQ in Beirut. As of 5:00 PM East Coast time, it is not yet clear whether Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in the strike.
Why is Israel doing all of this?
Simply put, to allow its citizens to return safely to their homes.
But given Hezbollah’s prior conduct and present intent, and Hamas’ example of what a terrorist army on the border can do, that requires at a minimum that Hezbollah completely withdraw from south Lebanon to a point behind the Litani river, about sixteen miles from Israel. That withdrawal would require Hezbollah’s armed forces to retreat behind the river along with dismantlement and removal of the more than one hundred thousand missiles located there. It would also require dismantlement of its military infrastructure embedded, by some estimates, in 1 out of every three homes located with the 200 Shiite villages in southern Lebanon.
And it would require a trusted enforcement mechanism. All that Resolution 1701 was designed to do but did not.
Unfortunately, it is unlikely that Hezbollah, even in its present state, will voluntarily agree and abide to the conditions necessary for Israeli citizens to return to their homes. Nor is there any realistic prospect that an international force will enforce such an agreement.
So, what must Israel do? At a minimum, continue to significantly degrade Hezbollah’s capability to harm Israel while possibly holding out the carrot of providing safe passage if Hezbollah pulls its forces north of the Litani and stops firing rockets and drones into Israel. Short of that, Israel has no choice but to use its ground forces to sweep through Lebanon south of the Litani while using its air force to further destroy Hezbollah capability both north and south of the river and to prevent any further reinforcement from Iran.
Now it is Hezbollah’s turn to reel from the IDF’s calculated blows that targets the terrorists and minimizes harm for Lebanon’s civilians even though that is immensely difficult to do (see the picture below of a Hezbollah missile hidden in a civilian home).
Israel has no choice but to do this. The alternative is to allow Hezbollah to drive events—thereby causing Israel to lose sovereignty over its northern lands and incentivizing an emboldened Hezbollah and Iran to do more. Nor should Israel have allowed Hezbollah to link its actions to Hamas’ survival. Instead, Israel has created a new linkage for Hezbollah that Israel is messaging in deeds rather than words—back off or die.
So, back to the question. Should Israel agree to give Hezbollah twenty-one-day respite that would:
Return linkage of a ceasefire with Hezbollah to circumstances in Gaza, thus giving Sinwar control of what happens and Hezbollah an excuse to continue to fire at Israel?
Should Israel agree to a twenty-one delay that would mean it could not launch a ground campaign or continue its highly effective air campaign to the same degree until the spring because of the onset of winter in early November?
Should Israel give Hezbollah an opportunity to refit and reorganize?
Should Israel stand down without any assurance from Hezbollah that it will agree to terms acceptable to Israelis who want to return to their homes?
Should Israel risk further delay which will only serve to increase international political pressure on it especially since the U.S. election is November 5?
Should Israel agree to a ceasefire when it gets nothing in return, its enemies get everything, its hostages continue to suffer because the pressure for a deal is lessened, and the 60,000 still cannot go home?
Should Israel agree to a ceasefire when it is winning in hopes of obtaining a deal that will cause it to lose?
Should Israel agree to a ceasefire when Hezbollah’s leadership has been decapitated to some degree or should Israel give Hezbollah time to reconstitute itself?
I think the answer to the 21-day ceasefire question is self-evident. Israel must press on, resolute to win but willing to accept peace if an enforceable, date-certain in days not weeks, and clearly-defined permanent deal with Hezbollah is offered by that terrorist entity that allows Israelis to safely return to their homes in the north, not just a deal that is hoped for and ill-defined by the international community who only cares about today—not tomorrow’s consequences.
Otherwise, Israel should not negotiate with the terrorists—it must kill them!
Also, if you have an interest in the danger Hezbollah presents and how it came to be, you might consider purchasing my book which can be obtained on Amazon here.
Weekend Events Review – September 20-22, 2024—Written by Dana Polak for the Alma Education and Research Center—September 22, 2024
How to Evaluate Media Coverage of Israel: A Guide—Written by Gary Rosenblatt for Future of Jewish—September 21, 2024
I found this article very interesting and valuable for smelling a rat hidden in the prose!
Washington’s View of Gaza Truce Does Not Align with Israel’s Security Interests—Written by Yaakov Lappin for the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies—September 18, 2024.
Report: Hezbollah Devices Were Detonated Individually, with Precise Intel on Targets—Written by Time of Israel Staff for the Times of Israel—September 22, 2024
Thousands of Small Bombs Activated in Lebanon: ‘The Pager Attack’ – Details and Implications—Written by Yaakov Lapin and Tal Beeri for the Alma Research and Education Center—July 18, 2024
Hezbollah Beeper Blasts: Timing not due to Plan Being Exposed, Sources Say - Exclusive—Written by Yonah Jeremy Bob for the Jerusalem Post—September 22, 2024
Why The Reactions to Israel’s Strikes on Hezbollah Matter—Written by Jonathan S. Tobin for Jewish News Syndicate—September 20, 2024
The Return of Evacuated Residents to Northern Israel is Now a War Goal, PMO Says—Written by the Jerusalem Post Staff for the Jerusalem Post—September 17, 2024
US Boosts Israel Defense Aid by $5.2 Billion for Laser Tech, Iron Dome, David’s Sling—Written by Yonah Jeremy Bob for the Jerusalem Post—September 26, 2024
Yemen Ballistic Missile Attack Shows Why Time is not on Israel’s Side - Comment—Written by Yonah Jeremy Bob for the Jerusalem Post—September 15, 2024
Israel Proposes ‘Safe Passage Deal’ to End War in Gaza—Report issued by Jewish News Syndicate—September 19, 2024
Mother with kids in Gaza is protesting --not for the war to end...nope. She wants it continue until victory is achieved.—Written by Sheri Oz for her Substack, Israel Diaries—September 22, 2024
IDF Special Forces Conducted Daring Raid on Iranian Precision Missile Factory in Syria—Flash Brief from the Federated Defense of Democracies—September 12, 2024
How Wikipedia Became a Propaganda Site—Written by Ashley Rindsberg for The Free Press—September 17, 2024
Wikipedia Has an Antisemitism Problem - Opinion—Written by Aviva Winton for the Jerusalem Post—September 13, 2024
Blaming Bibi First—Written by Eli Lake for Commentary—October 2024 issue
Israel’s Struggle with Hezbollah—A War Without End is now available in eBook and hardback format on Amazon and IngramSpark. This compelling narrative explores Hezbollah’s origins and cancerous growth, traces Israel’s response, and reveals Israel’s present readiness to meet Hezbollah’s challenge.
Cliff Sobin
Important Link—Alma Research and Education Center: Understanding the Security Challenges on Israel’s Northern Border
Thank you for your eye-opening post — you connect the dots for me by bringing clarity and perspective to these nightmarish circumstances.!