Despite the IDF finding six Hezbollah terror tunnels snaking into Israel from Lebanon, and a few isolated incidents, from the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006 until this year, the border between Israel and Lebanon was relatively quiet. That has now changed. Starting after the much criticized (within Israel) maritime agreement between Israel and Lebanon that followed Hezbollah’s threat to destroy Israel’s offshore gas rigs, Hezbollah’s conduct has become increasingly brazen. Starting with Hezbollah’s creation of about thirty manned outposts, some within yards of the border and often adjacent to IDF bases, Hezbollah has now embarked on a plethora of deadly and/or provocative incidents. The following chronology is instructive:
July 18, 2023 – Armed Hezbollah operatives patrolled Israel’s border while fitted with military gear, in violation of a United Nations resolution.
July 15, 2023 – Many Lebanese, including a government official, crossed the border into Israeli sovereign territory, before warning shots fired by the IDF chased them back into Lebanon.
July 12, 2023 –Hezbollah members attempting to damage Israel’s border fence were thwarted by the IDF. At a different location, Hezbollah’s operatives climbed an Israeli military tower and successfully stole surveillance equipment. And, in yet another location, IDF troops fired warning shots at a group of Hezbollah activists who launched fireworks and set fires near Metula.
July 6, 2023 – An anti-tank missile was fired from Lebanon at the former Syrian village of Ghajar, now protected by the IDF, around which Israel recently built a fence. Hezbollah argues that Ghajar is part of Lebanon. Ghajar’s residents want to be Israeli citizens. I was in Ghajar in May 2023.
June 21, 2023 – Hezbollah erected, and manned, two tents in Israeli controlled territory that Hezbollah argues is Lebanon but was part of Syria before 1967. Subsequently, Hezbollah took one tent down. The other remains and so do Hezbollah’s operatives.
April 6, 2023 – A Palestinian terrorist group fired 34 rockets from Southern Lebanon towards Israel. I personally viewed the damage caused by one of them. This could not have happened without Hezbollah’s permission due to its pervasive control of Southern Lebanon.
March 13, 2023 – Hezbollah sent a terrorist to infiltrate Israel from Lebanon and plant a bomb at a junction in northern. The ensuing blast critically wounded one Israeli.
Individually, some of these incidents are just concerning, other more serious ones could have sparked a war. But collectively, they make clear that Hezbollah has decided to up the ante by pushing the “Rules of the Game.” Whether for domestic Lebanese political reasons arising out of internal challenges to Hezbollah’s tyrannical rule or due to a decision by Nasrallah on his own, or at Iran’s behest, to heat up the region—it is clear that an accidental war, or one by Hezbollah’s design, is much more likely now than a year ago.
I travelled along those borders three times in the last fifteen months. In April 2022, I saw little new. In December 2022, Hezbollah’s new outposts caused me concern. Then, in May 2023, I felt a marked increase in tension. From my hotel room window in Metula, and again on a hike, I saw Hezbollah operatives shamelessly parading in full view from the border. So too while driving along the border. And to a far greater degree, I saw the outposts and the blatant challenge in complete defiance of UNIFIL they present.
It seems clear that Hezbollah has lost some of its fear of sparking a conflict and that the IDF’s deterrence is fading. And no wonder, since Hezbollah has not suffered any consequence for its actions. This must change or things will get worse.
However, I do not suggest that the IDF need to kill Hezbollah’s operatives or destroy the property of innocent civilians to make the point. For now, it might well be sufficient to isolate and flatten one or more of Hezbollah’s outposts now within a stone’s throw of IDF bases in Israel or a sharpshooter’s range of roads traveled by Israeli civilians or visitors—like myself. Then, make clear that the IDF will selectively do more unless Hezbollah removes its tent and promises to restrain incursions from Lebanon. Yes, doing so risks a confrontation. But it is a confrontation that will certainly happen if the IDF does not now forcibly respond.
The articles listed below highlight the problem Israel now faces in northern Israel and its reaction to date.
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Hezbollah, Seeing Division in Israel Launches Calculated Provocation—July 13, 2023 —Written by Yaakov Lappin for JNS. This must read by a respected security analyst predicts “Sooner [or] later, [Nasrallah] will start a fire.”
Is Israel’s IDF Losing its Touch in Deterring Hezbollah?—July 16, 2023—Written by Yonah Jeremy Bob for the Jerusalem Post. This article discusses the combustible mix that could ignite soon.
IDF Says No Threat After Hezbollah Members Seen Patrolling on Northern Border — July 25, 2023—Written by Emanuel Fabian for the Times of Israel. This article contains a must see video of Hezbollah operatives. You can watch what UNIFIL fails to act on. Shameful.
Around 30 Lebanese Soldiers, Hezbollah Members Crossing Briefly into Israel—July 9, 2023— Written by TOI Staff for the Times of Israel. Yet another provocation.
Nasrallah’s July 12 Speech and Hezbollah’s July 16 Video Form a New-Old Threatening Equation— July 17, 2023 — Written by Tal Beeri for Alma — The map accompanying this article locates Hezbollah’s land claims that it uses to justify pressuring Israel. In the article, the author discusses in detail the battle video Hezbollah recently released.
Israel’s Struggle with Hezbollah—A War Without End is now available in eBook and hardback format on Amazon and IngramSpark. This compelling narrative explores Hezbollah’s origins and cancerous growth, traces Israel’s response, and reveals Israel’s present readiness to meet Hezbollah’s challenge.
Cliff Sobin
Important Link—Alma Research and Education Center: Understanding the Security Challenges on Israel’s Northern Border