A subscriber to this newsletter emailed me a fair comment—”I cannot see how Israel can totally eliminate Hamas,” and “Hamas will recruit new ones to replace the one’s killed off.”
I think his comment a fair concern that deserves a response.
But before I do, let me provide some context as to why Israel is so determined. This time, from Secretary of State Blinken’s testimony before Congress on October 30, during which he spoke of:
“a family at its breakfast table at one of the kibbutzes . . . . A young boy and girl, six and eight years old, and their parents around the breakfast table. The father, his eye gouged out in front of his kids. The mother’s breast cut off, the girl’s foot amputated, the boy’s fingers cut off before they were executed.
And then their executioner sat down and had a meal. That’s what the society is dealing with. And no nation could tolerate that.
No nation could tolerate that. Nor should we.
Now, with fighting raging inside Gaza, let’s consider Israel’s announced goals which are essentially four:
Eliminate Hamas’ and Palestinian Islamic jihad’s military capability.
Eliminate Hamas’ governing capability in Gaza.
Deter Hezbollah escalation in the north while maintaining stability in Judea, Samaria (the West Bank), and throughout Israel.
Rescue the hostages.
Eliminating Hamas’ governing and military capability are well within Israel’s capabilities as long as it is not restrained by the international community. And for now, it appears that Israel’s domestic Arab populations are not rioting and stability is being maintained, with effort, in Judea and Samaria.
Rescuing the hostages is a problem with no certain solution other than perhaps, abdication. Previous Hamas kidnappings have resulted led to unbalanced deals to secure their freedom. In 2011, one Israeli was exchanged for more than a thousand Hamas terrorists that were imprisoned in Israel for their crimes. That exchange cost Israel dearly by providing Hamas with a huge cadre of dedicated murders, just the kind of people needed to carryout or command the October 7 deeds, consolidate Hamas’ control of Gaza, and led to the hubris to think that Hamas could exchange the hostages they took now for far more than before.
And, get this, Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ present leader in Gaza, the person most culpable for October 7, was released by Israel as part of that exchange in 2011. Why was he in jail? He was found guilty of killing two Israeli soldiers and four Palestinians he thought were collaborators for Israel. Not a nice guy. Israel will not do that again—I hope.
So, where does that leave Israel with regard to securing the release of the 242 hostages still in activity given its parallel need to eradicate Hamas?
With pressure and presence.
Hamas will not release its captives for humanitarian reasons. Nor will it surrender, unless pressured to do so. It is holding them for deals that Israel will not likely give. Furthermore, Israeli intelligence, despite its failure on October 7, is remarkably good. With the IDF on the ground nearby it can react quickly to save hostages. It has done so once. It may do it again. And while there is no certainty in this, there is no certainty with any other path. Still, while I hold out hope that some may be freed, I have grave worries for the vast majority of tortured souls hauled off to captivity
As for Hezbollah and Iran, Lt. Colonel Sarit Zehavi has lost faith in deterrence. So have I. In fact, I expressed those concerns months ago in the last book I wrote. Tomorrow, however, we may get a clue as to what Hezbollah will do. Its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, will give his first public speech since this war started, tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. east coast time (3:00 p.m. in Israel). In 2006, after that war broke out between Israel and Hezbollah following Hezbollah ambushing and killing IDF soldiers and taking two captive, Nasrallah enunciated a surprise while speaking publicly for the first time after that war started—a missile launch that struck an Israeli naval vessel. Will he have a surprise Friday? I think more likely yes than no. But we will see.
However, let’s get to the subscriber comment I want to address. It involves goals 1 and 2—the elimination of Hamas’ and Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s military strength and Hamas’ ability to govern Gaza.
First of all, I think it important to differentiate between eradicating the physical presence of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and wiping out their ideological presence. Unfortunately, an IDF victory will not erase their ideology from people’s minds overnight. In fact, in the anger of many who live through this war, their ideology will linger until it is discredited. However, that process can only start after Hamas’ and PIJ’s physical, heavily armed and dominate presence is torn out of Gaza. Waning of that ideology will accelerate if the population is offered hope for a better life if it accepts a better path even if vestiges of those terror organizations remain. To achieve that, while also securing Israel, my preliminary assessment is that some form of the following is required:
The IDF must crisscross Gaza to remove as many armaments as possible that carry a cross-border risk (missiles for sure, drones as much as feasible, and the like. Confiscate small arms and ammunition too although much will remain in bad hands.)
Methodically destroy each and every tunnel underneath Gaza. They represent almost two decades of effort and untold amounts of goods diverted from civilians.
Widen the area inside Gaza along Israel’s border where no people are permitted access on pain of death.
The IDF should permanently man a band of territory in Gaza at the Rafah crossings, which are adjacent to Egypt, to prevent further contraband from coming in overland and through tunnels underneath.
Kill any Hamas or PIJ leader found in Gaza as well as any terrorists complicit in the massacre.
Assassinate abroad any Hamas or PIJ leader found.
Invite publicly and vociferously the PA and/or any combination of moderate Muslim nations to rebuild and administer Gaza with the goal of preparing the citizenry for self-government. Perhaps, and this would be tricky, link long term peace in Gaza with moving forward with a Two-State solution. Thus, giving moderate Arab countries skin in the game.
Flood Gaza with humanitarian aide and medical care and have the IDF administer the dissemination of that aid until other Arab governments step in—not the U.N.
End UNWRA’s role in Gaza.
Demand that the international community put their money where their mouth is with financial assistance for Gazans and creation of economic zones that provide meaningful jobs. But make clear to all that aid and economic growth is contingent on Gazans remaining peaceful and will only be given to those not anymore members of Hamas like organizations. However, do not make the mistake the United States did in Iraq of banning former Hamas administrators that do not have blood on their hands from partaking in the new awakening.
Seek international support to rapidly change the Gazan school system message to one of tolerance rather than intolerance, and specifically end its libel of Jews and Israel.
Slowly but relentlessly create institutions for Gazans to govern themselves.
Prevail on Egypt to partake in economic exchanges with Gaza and ensure water, power, etc. continues to flow from Israel. However, for a matter of years, Israel’s borders must remain locked down, with no employment of Gazans in Israel, and ships bringing goods to Gaza must be searched.
And then, in a matter of a few months, pull all vestiges of the IDF out of Gaza other than at the Rafah crossings, leave civilian cadres charged with minimally impacting the civilian population, but loudly proclaim the IDF’s right to return with targeted missions to eliminate any appearance of militarization and/or return of terror operations in Gaza.
These are my preliminary thoughts, some of which I may change my mind on. There is no guarantee it will work but there is a guarantee that if Israel does not eradicate Hamas and the PIJ, terror will return to Israel—quickly and perhaps more devastatingly than even on October 7.
My bottom line is that immediately after Israel wins the war, Gazans must be given hope, sustenance, and an opportunity to see that changes coming will improve their lives. And Israel must invite participation from nations partaking in the Abraham Accords plus Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, while the process plays out, Israel must ensure that no new terrorist group rises to take back control of the Gaza strip.
All the naysayers think it impossible for Israel to succeed with changing Gaza for the better, but they offer no realistic alternative. I think them wrong. It will be hard, but it can be done. And doing so, in partnership with Arab nations, could illuminate a path forward for a two-state solution. And meanwhile, Israelis in the south will feel safe again.
Daily update: Israel at war Day 26 Nov. 1, 2023, 8:00 PM Israel time - Written by Alma Research and Education Center—A comprehensive review of events.
12 Things to Know About the IDF’s Gaza Ground Offensive - Analysis—Written by Yonah Jeremy Bobb for the Jerusalem Post—October 31, 2023
Click here to look at a fascinating interactive map of the war in Gaza.
IDF Strategy in the Gaza Ground Operation—Written by Ariel Oseran for I24 News—November 2, 2023
Israel’s Struggle with Hezbollah—A War Without End is now available in eBook and hardback format on Amazon and IngramSpark. This compelling narrative explores Hezbollah’s origins and cancerous growth, traces Israel’s response, and reveals Israel’s present readiness to meet Hezbollah’s challenge.
Cliff Sobin
Important Link—Alma Research and Education Center: Understanding the Security Challenges on Israel’s Northern Border