A Ceasefire Would be a Huge Victory for Hamas and a Devastating Defeat for Israel
November 8, 2023 - Issue #28
Telling the Truth About a Ceasefire
The news is filled with horrible images of Gazans bearing the brunt of war. Those images are fueling calls worldwide for a ceasefire that would leave Hamas intact and free to terrorize Israel again and again.
That has been Hamas’ plan all along.
When Hamas sent its thugs into Israel on October 7, it knew that Israel would respond forcefully, but it didn’t care. It knew that thousands of Gazans, enmeshed in the fighting, would be killed in the battles that would ensue, but it didn’t care. It knew that hospitals and homes, ambulances and playgrounds, mosques and schools would become battlegrounds, but it didn’t care. In fact, this is exactly what Hamas wanted.
Don’t believe me?
Then why does Hamas brazenly violate established Rules of War by hiding behind the people of Gaza, and in and under their homes, hospitals, mosques, schools and playgrounds? The answer to this question is supplied by Hamas’ own leaders from an interview of Mousa Abu Marzouk, a senior member of Hamas’ leadership:
Question: “Since you have built 500 kilometers of tunnels, why haven’t you built bomb shelters where civilians can hide during bombardments?”
Answer: The tunnels are “meant to protect us” from Israeli aircraft and facilitate attacks on Israeli targets. “Us” meaning Hamas. Not civilians. And then Marzouk said that it is the job of the United Nations, not Hamas, to protect civilians.
Or when Israel flooded northern Gaza with messages advising the population living there to move south because the area would soon become a battlefield—Hamas’ leadership ordered civilians in northern Gaza to defy the IDF’s advice to “evacuate south for your own safety” and Eyad al-Bozom, a spokesman for Hamas’ interior ministry, and encouraged Gaza’s residents to “stay put in your homes and your places.”
Marzouk’s callousness was echoed by Hamas Leader Ismail Haniyeh, from his cushy home in Qatar: "We need the blood of women, children, and the elderly of #Gaza... so as to awaken our revolutionary spirit." Why? Because, in his words, "The blood of the women, children and elderly […] we are the ones who need this blood, so it awakens within us the revolutionary spirit, so it awakens with us resolve." Then Haniyeh has the chutzpa to demand of the “free people of the world" to stop Israel’s bombing in Gaza, which he called the "new Holocaust."
Hmm. Couldn’t Hamas just surrender and return the hostages? That would stop the war.
But that is not part of Hamas’ plan. Hamas plans to execute (I purposively used this word) another October 7, and another, and another. That’s what Ghazi Hamad, deputy foreign minister for Hamas, said in an interview on Lebanon's LBC TV where he proudly proclaimed "We must teach Israel a lesson, and we will do this again and again. The Al-Aqsa Flood is just the first time, and there will be a second, a third, a fourth, because we have the determination, the resolve, and the capabilities to fight. Will we have to pay a price? Yes, and we are ready to pay it. We are called a nation of martyrs, and we are proud to sacrifice martyrs.” And that, "Israel is a country that has no place on our land. We must remove that country. We are not ashamed to say that with full force. We must teach Israel a lesson, and we will do this again and again."
Hamad’s words moved, Gershon Baskin—no conservative he, who dealt with Hamad extensively while negotiating a one-sided prisoner exchange in 2011, to write a well-worth-reading open letter that shrieks of his now strong condemnation and disgust and with Hamad.
In the face of such evil, how can anyone expect Israel to accept a ceasefire? Especially since one way or another, usually with rocket fire, Hamas has broken at least five separate ceasefires with Israel designed to end significant conflicts that flared up over a sixteen year period. All those ceasefires accomplished was to give Hamas a respite and an opportunity to increase its strength. Israel is determined not to allow that to happen again.
No nation would.
However, Israel has done what it can to encourage and permit Gazans in the north to evacuate to southern Gaza. It did so many days ago and once again very recently, unilaterally designating a corridor through which civilians can escape. But this time Israel learned a lesson, having seen Hamas’ attempt to prevent Gazan citizens from evacuating previously. Therefore, the IDF did its best to guard that corridor as well.
However, now there is much discussion of a “pause” in the fighting. Therefore, it is important to distinguish between a ceasefire that ends the fighting until Hamas wants to launch terror again and a pause of a short period of time that would permit further movement of the civilian population to southern Gaza and more humanitarian relief into Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu has indicated he is open to a pause in fighting under one condition—release of all hostages. A pause that would end quickly with everyone expecting Israel’s offensive to resume.
In other words, one humanitarian act for another. A pretty fair deal. So far, Hamas isn’t buying it. Why? Because it needs the hostages for its own security. It doesn’t give a shit for the safety of the people it governs.
So where does that leave us? News reports today contain an initiative President Biden supposedly supports in which Hamas would release 10-15 hostages, and provide an accounting of all others in return for a three day pause. In my mind, that is a terribly bad deal. It leaves far too many hostages in Hamas’ hands to dribble out for more pauses or other concessions. It leaves Israel exposed to condemnation if it restarts its offensive after three days. And it allows Hamas to regroup. A better deal is necessary. So for now, no ceasefire for sure and a pause is being negotiated. And the only way for the terms of that pause to improve is to ratchet up the pressure on Hamas.
Where could that pressure come from? Us, and our media, and then our governments. The refusal of so many to put the blame for Gazan suffering where it squarely lies on Hamas is mind boggling. The failure of our media to point its megaphone at Hamas’ perfidy is astounding. The cowardice of so many governments to state clearly that Hamas is the problem, not Israel, is often indicative of those country’s internal politics not their leaders true feelings. And then of course, there is the the issue of antisemitism and double-standards. The “River to the Sea” people want only one thing, the destruction of Israel. Pushing for a ceasefire or one hidden in an emasculating pause is part of their toolbox because it masks their goal of first delegitimizing Israel and eventually seeing it fall. They know that a ceasefire would be seen in Israel as a huge defeat of cataclysmic proportions
And they are right.
If Israel leaves Hamas intact, free to re-arm, free to gather more recruits, free to terrorize Israel and its own people, Israel’s other enemies would be energized. Israel’s people would be disillusioned. Israelis living along the borders in the north and the south would move away because they would rightly see that their government will not protect them from the terror that will surely bubble over again. And, it would be the end of any possibility of a two-state solution. Who, in their right mind, would agree to make a deal with the Palestinians that would create a long border along the center of the country if Israel’s government lacks the grit necessary to deal with terrorists that crossed the border in mass to kill more than a thousand people in one day.?
So, don’t be fooled to support a ceasefire. And don’t be fooled to support a pause unless accompanied by release of all hostages. A ceasefire imperils Israel’s survivability. A pause without release of all hostages imperils the lives of the remaining hostages because Israel has nothing more that it could rationally give for their safe release—other than a process leading to abdication and survival of Hamas.
On another note:
I’m proud to tell you in the last couple days, three different organizations have been kind enough to publish my writings:
Jewish News Syndicate: Liberal and Progressive Jews, Take a Stand
Endowment for Middle East Truth: A longer piece on the same subject as above titled It’s Time Together We Take a Stand
Alma Research and Education Center: An article I co-authored with Sarit Zehavi that will appear today or tomorrow titled, The Iranian Axis is Building Legitimacy for a Pre-Planned Multi-Front War
Daily update: Israel at war Day 32 Nov. 7, 2023, 20:00 PM Israel time—Written by the Alma Research and Education Center staff.
Why the West Bank Security Model is Relevant to Post-War Gaza—A fascinating podcast on I24News that includes Yaakov Lappin’s suggestion to look to the IDF’s security process on the West Bank for a clue how Israel will maintain security in Gaza post war. The podcast also provides insight regarding Jordan’s present activities, danger to its throne stemming from Iraq and Jordanian motivation.
The Fourth Front - Yemen—Written by the Alma research staff—November 7, 2023—An in depth look at the threat the Houthi terrorist organization in Yemen now presents to Israel.
The Real Gaza Hospital Crisis—Written October 23, 2023 by Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies—A fascinating history delineating how Hamas has used hospitals for its terrorist efforts since 2006.
Israel’s Struggle with Hezbollah—A War Without End is now available in eBook and hardback format on Amazon and IngramSpark. This compelling narrative explores Hezbollah’s origins and cancerous growth, traces Israel’s response, and reveals Israel’s present readiness to meet Hezbollah’s challenge.
Cliff Sobin
Important Link—Alma Research and Education Center: Understanding the Security Challenges on Israel’s Northern Border