Saturday night Iran attacked Israel. Soaring through air and space, 170 slow moving drones (similar to what Iran sells to Russia for use against Ukraine), 30 speedier cruise missiles with larger payloads, and 120 fast moving ballistic missiles left their launching sites in Iran headed for targets in Israel. In addition, the Houthis and Iraqi proxies fired a few missiles, and Hezbollah piled on as well with dozens of their own aimed at targets in the Golan Heights. Iran subsequently claimed that it directed its attack to an Israeli airbase in southern Israel used by IDF planes that took part in an April 1 airstrike in Damascus that killed a high-level Iranian IRGC general and other Iranian officers. I’ll get to that in a moment. But anyone who was watching television Saturday night saw that Iran’s missiles also flew over the Temple Mount in Jerusalem, the third holiest location in Islam, before Israeli air defenses intercepted them. It’s a blessing that only a few got through and, as tragic as any loss of life is, only one person—an Arab child—died.
Why did Iran attack? The Iranians say it was in response to Israel’s targeted killing of their general in Damascus. I say that was just a convenient excuse. Let’s explore that.
For more than two decades, Iran has pursued its plan to become a nuclear power. Sometimes with more intensity. Sometimes with less. Sometimes the world has taken notice and moved aggressively with sanctions and the like to stop the Iranians. Once there were negotiations that ended with a flawed agreement (the JCPOA trumpeted by some and reviled by others) that America withdrew from three years later. And now, following the present administration’s failed attempt to reach a new deal with Iran, there is no deal, no negotiations, and no real hope that Iran will not obtain a nuclear weapon unless stopped by force.
But all along, one thing has been constant—Israel’s desperate and often lonely attempts to slow Iran’s inexorable march towards joining the nuclear club. To accomplish that, in lieu of striking Iranian nuclear sites with weapons that would also have killed many Iranians and potentially started a war, Israel resorted to diplomatic efforts promoting sanctions on Iran, cyberattacks and other forms of espionage directed (with and without the help of the United States) directed at Iran’s nuclear program, and targeted killing of Iranian nuclear scientists. On the whole, by doing so, Israel succeeded in slowing but not stopping Iran’s march forward. Unfortunately, we are now reaching the end of the line. The can can’t be kicked down the road much longer.For more than two decades, Iran has used Syria as a conduit for sending missiles and other armaments to Hezbollah that now total 150,000 or more and that present an existential threat to Israel. To degrade Iran’s effort, Israel embarked on a Campaign Between Wars that continues to this day (see Chapter Twenty-one of the book I wrote about Hezbollah that I published last year). The basic concept is to interdict weapon shipments before they reach Lebanon. To do that, Israel mostly uses its airpower to destroy those weapons in Syria while they are moving through to Lebanon or while the weapons are in storage. Israel also strikes at the personnel in Syria involved in advancing the Iranian project. Even so, as we are seeing with Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel, much slips through. But if Israel were not prosecuting the Campaign Between Wars, Hezbollah would now have much more in its larder that it could use to kill Israelis and disrupt Israel’s economy.
For several years, Iran has been seeking to open another active front with Israel from Syria along its shared border with Israel. To do that, Iran has poured money, personnel, and weapons into the region. Israel, again as part of its Campaign Between Wars, has actively resisted that effort by disrupting terrorists seeking to base themselves near the border and intermittently killing leaders that visit the region to organize and further those efforts. So far, this effort has slowed Iran’s plans and complicated its efforts.
To no one’s surprise, Israel’s efforts have not made Iran happy, depleted its treasury, and eliminated many important Iranian leaders and scientists. Nor is Israel alone in adopting this type of strategy. In 2020, America killed Iran’s most capable military officer and strategic planner, Qasem Soleimani, with a drone strike in Iraq. America also killed Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in his apartment in Afghanistan with a drone strike in 2022, the leader of ISIS in 2022, many other terrorists and, of course, Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan in 2011.
So, what is Iran’s overblown beef?
It is that its generals were killed by an Israeli airstrike while at an Iranian “consular” building in Damascus.
What is the truth?
The building was a residence providing housing next to the Iranian consulate but not part of it. Was it endowed with diplomatic protection. No, for three independent reasons. The residential building was not on Israeli soil (only host nations must give diplomatic immunity), was not part of the consulate, and was likely being used for a military meeting (some might differ with my view but for the last two weeks there has not been a big uproar about it). Does it matter? Well, it shouldn’t. Israel is in the midst of a hot war with Hezbollah which has fired thousands of projectiles at Israeli soil over the last few months. The officers, responsible were likely in the midst of planning new attacks or logistic operations. They certainty were not on vacation! And any claims of diplomatic immunity are especially rich given that the Iranian government took captive American embassy personnel when it overran the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979, allowed a crowd to ransack the British embassy in Tehran in 2011, and allowed another mob to ransack the Saudi Arabia embassy in Tehran in 2016. Or does immunity only attach to Iranians planning to kill Israelis?
And what is Iran now saying in hopes of avoiding an Israeli response?
They have announced that their game changing attack is a one and done unless Israel attacks Iran or kills any more of its people in the future. In other words, Iran is demanding that Israel stop its Campaign Between Wars so that it can accelerate its nuclear weapon program, better arm Hezbollah, and activate another front in Syria from which to attack Israel.
Should Israel acquiesce to that?
Not happening!
Iran does not get to do what it wants and then dictate when and how Israel can respond in its defense. Not only is Israel’s long-term survival at stake but so is its ability to build alliances with regional Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. They respect strength not weakness. They want to reach an accommodation with Israel because they see that Israel’s technical prowess will help their economies and that Israel’s military might and will to employ it are assets these Arab states would like for Israel to use to protect them from Iran. But if Israel’s response is meek, all that will evaporate. Meanwhile, Iran and its proxies will grow bolder.
So, what needs to happen now?
First some principles:
Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. Saturday night, Israel would not have had the dubious luxury of riding out an attack if Iran had nuclear weapons. Instead, it would have had to attack Iran pre-emptively.
Conditions must be achieved that permit Israeli civilians to return to their homes near the border with Lebanon. To accomplish that, Hezbollah must be pushed back so that it cannot use its massive stock of short-range rockets hidden in civilian homes to strike targets in Israel and cannot launch a surprise invasion like Hamas did. This is an extraordinarily difficult challenge since many Hezbollah members live in villages in southern Lebanon.
Hamas must not retain the capability to govern Gaza or launch offensive military operation into Israel.
Iran and Hezbollah must not succeed in activating Syria’s border with Israel.
Weapon shipments to Hezbollah must be interdicted.
And then a truth.
Israel now faces the very real prospect of incoming fire from seven places: Iran, Lebanon (Hezbollah), Gaza (Hamas and Islamic Jihad), Syria (Iranian proxies), Iraq (Iranian proxies), Yemen (Houthis), and the West Bank (a growing Hamas/terrorist contingent). Israel’s strength and resilience will ebb unless it acts resolutely to eliminate some of these threats and cow others into standing down. To do that, it must:
Respond forcefully to Iran’s attempt to change the Rules of its confrontation with Israel. Israel must be able to continue to conduct its Campaign Between Wars as long as Iran is positioning itself and its proxies to achieve their brazen announced goal to destroy Israel. Therefore, it is not enough to “accept a win” stemming from Israel’s admirable air defense performance April 14. That alone does nothing to deter Iran from doing it again, now better informed from lessons learned and emboldened by Israel’s failure to punish Iran for doing so this time. In fact, Nor should Israel’s response be “proportional.” It must be disproportionally greater. Failure to do that leaves Iran in the cat bird seat, able to calculate the cost of striking Israel again should it decide to spin up a future alleged provocation.
Ideally, I think, Israel’s response should be contained, powerful, and easy to achieve. Examples are a strike against an Iranian economic target—facilities necessary for the export of its oil comes to mind. Destruction of Iranian air defenses is also possible but they are likely easily replaceable. A massive cyber-attack would fit the bill too. Nor does action have to be taken immediately. Benny Gantz’s comment that for now "We will build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us," probably strikes the right balance. That is the same type of language used by Iran after its officers died in Damascus on April 1. Let the Iranians worry about when and where and what for the moment. Meanwhile, Israel can reap whatever diplomatic benefit and military assistance it can garner by agreeing to slow things down. I don’t know that Israel will choose the path of strategic patience over an immediate response, but it is a reasonable choice to make.
As for now launching a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, I suspect that it is on the table but not a likely option. That would require many days of operations that would lead to an uncertain result and could tip American support, which has not been negligible, away. One day, Israel will likely have to do that. But I would finish things in Gaza and with Hezbollah first if there is time before an Iranian nuclear breakout.Israel must, I repeat must, mobilize and take out Hamas in Rafah immediately while continuing with its ramped up humanitarian aid efforts in conjunction with the United States and others. Especially because there is no reason to further delay operations in Rafah because Hamas has now rejected yet another deal to return forty hostages—perhaps because, according to at least one report, less than forty are still alive and it is just playing its unseen bad hand as well as it can. Hamas’s rejection contained no concessions even though the latest offer contained further Israeli concessions as have prior ones. Maybe, that’s why Israel announced today that it is mobilizing two reserve brigades for operations in Gaza.
Taking Iran’s Hamas card off the table ends the threat on one front, sends a message of resoluteness to future potential Israel allies that only respect strength no matter what their Arab street demands, and sends a message to Hezbollah that Israel means business. Short of that, there is no hope (there is not much anyway), that Hezbollah will agree to retreat through diplomatic pressure. And, pressuring Hamas is the only remaining, but fleeting, hope for securing release of any more hostages absent an Israeli abdication.Israel should then pivot to Hezbollah and make clear that if Hezbollah does not withdraw voluntarily by a deadline, Israel will forcefully push it back. Only by stating clearly its threat of military action backed by prior proof of Israeli resolve in Gaza and with Iran is there any chance that Hezbollah will back down on its own or due to vigorous international diplomacy.
History teaches us that the meek do not rule the earth nor do they survive. Israel lives in the Middle East jungle. There, survival is by the fittest not the nicest. Nevertheless, Israel has proven time and time again through different governments and different circumstances that it is willing to go the extra yard for peace while conducting itself in accord with the rules of war. It is not always perfect but it tries to be. A trait not shared by its enemies. But one thing Israel is not willing to do is take undue risks with those whose goal is to exterminate its people. Nor should it.
It is high time that the international community recognize that the path to peace is by pressuring those that oppose it—Iran declares it wants war and the destruction of Israel, Hezbollah declares it wants war and the destruction of Israel, Hamas declares it wants war and the destruction of Israel. Perhaps its time the world listens to them and recalibrate its criticism of a fellow nation struggling to survive rather than continuing to coddle terrorist enterprises!
Iran’s First Direct Attack on Israel, April 14th, 2024—Written by Dana Polak Kanarik for Alma Research and Education Center
The Gaza Terror Offensive – 9 March – 14 April 2024—Written by Dr. Eado Hecht for the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies—April 14, 2024
The Real War in the Middle East Comes into Focus—Written by Matti Friedman for the Free Press—April 14, 2024
St.-Sgt.-Maj. Ari Zenilman and His Sacrifice for the State of Israel—Written by Joanie Margulies for the Jerusalem Post—April 13, 2024
NYC Mayor Says He ‘Will Not Succumb’ to Pressure to Back Ceasefire—Written by Jacob Kornbluh—April 9, 2024
When U.S. Troops Kill Aid Workers, it's 'Friendly Fire'. When Israel Does, it's a 'War Crime'. The Double Standards are Nauseating—Written by Richard Littlejohn for the Daily Mail—April 4, 2024
What Happens if Israel Does Not Go Into Rafah? Look at Afghanistan—Written by Richard Kemp for the Jewish Chronicle April 3, 2024
Israel Defense Forces Work to Protect Civilians—Not Kill Them—Written by John Spencer for the New York Post—April 4, 2024
Hamas-Run Gaza Health Ministry Admits to Flaws in Casualty Data—FDD Flash Brief—April 9, 2024
How Much Is a Dead Jew Worth?—Written by Gadi Taub for Tablet—April 3, 2024
A Profile of Hezbollah’s Almas Missile – Capabilities and Significance—Written by Yair Ramati and Yaakov Lappin for the Alma Research and Education Center—April 4, 2024.
Israel’s Struggle with Hezbollah—A War Without End is now available in eBook and hardback format on Amazon and IngramSpark. This compelling narrative explores Hezbollah’s origins and cancerous growth, traces Israel’s response, and reveals Israel’s present readiness to meet Hezbollah’s challenge.
Cliff Sobin
Important Link—Alma Research and Education Center: Understanding the Security Challenges on Israel’s Northern Border